There is nothing the All Black selectors enjoy more than pulling a joker out the pack which is why Jarrad Hoeata making the Grand Slam tour can't be discounted.
The bruising Taranaki lock-cum-blindside was a surprise choice for the Maori earlier this year where his physicality, mobility and versatility caught the eye.
With Adam Thomson ruled out of the tour due to a knee injury, the selectors are scouring the country for alternative options at loose forward. Despite the lament about no obvious back-up to Richie McCaw, the presence of two specialist opensides in the tour party is unlikely.
The skill-sets of all three berths are regarded as becoming virtually generic which is why there are four certainties in the back-row - McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Kieran Read and Victor Vito. All can carry the ball, tackle, forage, link the play and have a presence at the collision.
There is room for two or possibly three more loose forwards now that coach Graham Henry has said a third hooker is a luxury they can't afford. Liam Messam is a serious candidate and a player the panel do not want to give up on. The only other loose forwards to have played test rugby recently are Tanerau Latimer and Daniel Braid - both specialist opensides who have failed in their previous efforts to convince as long-term All Blacks.
Injury and suspension prevented Hoeata from making much of an impact this year with the Chiefs, but his form was exceptional with the Maori and he's enjoying a high-impact campaign with Taranaki.
Hoeata could be the leading wild card contender. At 1.98m and 112kg he has the physique to impose himself. He's also tough, aggressive and willing to carry the ball.
It was at lock that he starred for the Maori, while Taranaki have been using him more at blindside and that versatility is of interest. His aerial work is high quality and he shone in this area against the big, physical packs of England and Ireland.
"I know he hasn't played a lot of rugby [atSuper14] but I think Jarrad has all the skills and mental aptitude to be an All Black," says newly appointed Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph. "He is uncompromising, works hard, trains well and if he really wants to, he could grab this opportunity."
Joseph is sold on Hoeata whom he selected for the Maori then persuaded to join the Highlanders.
It would be a major leap of faith for the All Blacks to call up Hoeata given how little Super 14 he has played. But the positives are intriguing.
At 27, he has the physical and mental maturity to slot in quickly, just as Tom Donnelly managed last year.
His ability to play both lock and blindside increases his value; as a lock he has shown he can handle the aerial chores and as a loose forward he is an impressive ball carrier and a major factor at the collision.
He would be a different option entirely to the four loose forward certainties. The biggest question is whether the coaches want a different type of loose forward in the mix.
While he would show up well carrying the ball, he's not a renowned forager and, at close to 2m, his ability to play on the floor is compromised.
Chiefs coach Ian Foster says of Hoeata: "I think the fact he is a physical player is his biggest attribute. I think the hard part for locks who can play six is whether they have the ball-carrying and defensive impact of a loose forward.
"Can they get down low for the ball and do they have the agility to be effective at the breakdown and secure turnover ball? Jarrad's got the potential but I think the fact he has gone to the Highlanders is a sign we were not totally convinced."
Manawatu captain Nick Crosswell stacked as another potential wildcard selection but his future has been clouded by ongoing knee problems. Keyhole surgery last week found some damage that will need at least a month's rest and possibly more work under the knife.
With Thomson and Crosswell both discounted due to injury and Latimer and Braid unconvincing specialists, the question is if not Hoeata, then who.
All Blacks: Loose cannon ready to fire
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