The last two tests have been abysmal for the All Blacks. In fact, this season has been fairly dire. The test against Australia in two weeks looms as a watershed - can the coaching panel deliver a better result? Gregor Paul offers some thoughts on how they might go about resurrecting their season.
The Lineout
Problems
1: If you listened to All Blacks forwards coach Steve Hansen talking about the lineout, there would be significant danger of being lulled into believing the process was rocket science. That, arguably, is the biggest problem with the lineout - the All Blacks are over-complicating matters; seeing problems that don't exist and devising unwieldy, complex solutions.
2: Isaac Ross, the least experienced member of the pack in his rookie test season, is calling the lineouts.
3: The All Blacks want to play high-tempo, expansive rugby where they get to the touchline from first-phase possession, so are fixed on winning lineout ball 'off the top' from the middle or the tail. Those are the hardest areas for a hooker to hit.
4: There was some suggestion the South Africans had spied on the All Blacks at training or had prior knowledge of their lineout strategy. It is more likely the All Blacks are just predictable and that the Boks, as will the Australians, work on the assumption the ball is going to number four or number six.
5: They don't pressure the opposition throw.
Solutions We Are Likely To See in Sydney
1: More speed. The All Blacks realised last year that the rest of the world works the lineout faster. When the All Blacks tried it, they improved. From the lineout forming to the hooker throwing takes an age with the All Blacks. Make the call, hoist the jumper, snap the arm. Despite what Hansen says, it's not rocket science.
2: Ross will be asked to focus on winning the ball and settle into the team. Calling the lineout is a big responsibility so let Brad Thorn or Richie McCaw do it.
3: The All Blacks should be more prepared to use the front of the lineout. When a team is low on confidence and under pressure, there's nothing wrong with taking the safe option and securing possession even if it is harder to launch attacks. The variation also makes it harder for opponents.
4: Use some clever variations. Last year the All Blacks, several times, passed the ball to Tony Woodcock stationed at the front and it worked superbly.
5: Be more aggressive in the air and simplify the thinking around when to compete aerially on opposition ball and when to defend on the ground.
After the first test against South Africa, hooker Andrew Hore said: "We had spots we were going to jump in and spots we were going to try to stop their drive." It didn't look as if the team understood. If they did, they failed to implement the plan.
At the time Hansen said of Victor Matfield: "He's so good on his feet, he covers a lot of space. He puts himself in the game at lineout time by just getting up there. Half a lift from blokes that are as tall as they are, if you get it marginally wrong then you're in trouble, whether it's your thrower, jumper or lifter."
If he puts himself in the game by just being up there, why are the All Blacks not doing the same thing with Isaac Ross? That has to change in Sydney.
Kicking Game
Problems
1: There doesn't appear to be a kicking game.
2: When the All Blacks do kick, they don't have the confidence to put the ball out as they don't have a policy of challenging the opposition throw.
3: The fact they don't want to kick the ball sends the message the kicking game isn't good enough to be effective. That erodes confidence and puts pressure on players to try to run out of trouble instead of booting it to safety.
4: There remains a misguided fascination with high-risk, low-reward short kicks where the ball is chipped into space in the hope it might be regained.
Solutions We Are Likely To See In Sydney
1: A greater confidence to kick long and to kick for the touchline. Rather than run from deep with such insistence, the All Blacks will kick their way out of their own half and look to run from deep only when the opportunity is obvious.
2: When they played the Wallabies at Eden Park, the All Blacks kicked high and slightly shorter than usual as they attempted to get their own runners under the ball. It was effective and should be re-employed.
The Rolling Maul
Problems
1: Hansen is a vocal opponent of the maul. He sees it as a problem area - where teams can legally cheat by putting bodies in front of the ball. He's campaigning the IRB to change the rules so isn't keen on using a ploy he is actively trying to drum out of the game, or at least radically alter.
2: The All Blacks seem to have reached the conclusion mauling is not only not for them, but something they have never been good at. It's as if they see it as some grubby act of the less fortunate - like the Boks and English who don't have the means to play a more beautiful game.
Solutions We Are Likely To See In Sydney
1: All Black rugby has always been about innovation and working to the limit of the law. You have to ask why the All Blacks don't, like every other nation, take advantage of the rules and bump yards through some controlled mauls.
As Hansen said of mauls recently: "It's something that's probably one of the difficult things in the game at the moment. You've got to have mauling in the game but it's got to be a fair contest too."
The contest is not always fair as it depends on the referee. The All Blacks should try a few and might find they get away with all sorts and can use it to cross the gainline and attack a retreating defence.
2: Throwing to the front of the lineout opens the opportunity for driving mauls. A short flat ball to Thorn, taken off him by Tony Woodcock who drives in-field and the maul goes from there, de-cluttering and creating holes in the Wallaby midfield defence. The rolling maul will force the Wallabies to commit their forwards and leave backs against backs.
Kick returns
Problems
1: The All Blacks have been woeful at collecting the ball. Basic catching is poor and too many look uncomfortable leaping for the ball.
2: There's been little variation in the All Black counter-attack. They have simply run - which becomes predictable.
3: When they have broken the line on the counter-attack, the All Blacks have been slow to reach the ball carrier and lacked the numbers to keep the momentum.
Solutions We Are Likely To See In Sydney
1: A vastly improved execution of basic skills under the high ball. Better technique in the approach, greater numbers behind the ball and a better organised chase.
2: Watch out for the All Blacks counter-attacking early in the game and then varying their response from there.
3: Greater urgency and awareness so any linebreaks are well supported.
All Blacks: Keeping it simple looks best remedy
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