All Blacks: Henry should keep honesty to himself

Graham Henry. Photo / Getty Images

The honesty was sobering but Graham Henry's admission the All Blacks may lose more games this year should perhaps have been kept to himself.

When it comes to the All Blacks, the truth is not always what the nation wants to hear.

Expectation is everything with the All Blacks and the public can't be conditioned into thinking the worst.

One of the cornerstones of the All Black legacy is public expectation. The knowledge that there is no place to hide in defeat has given the side an edge, a clarity of understanding and motivation. It can't be removed overnight, nor should anyone think that it can.

Everyone understands the All Blacks are not going to win every game. History shows the record is stunning, significantly better than every other country, but not perfect. Defeat has to be part of the landscape. It's just that the ground doesn't have to be prepared so openly to accommodate it.

Former All Black coach John Hart was certainly surprised to read such comments from Henry.

"I don't think you want to be talking about that publicly," says Hart.

"I guess we [All Blacks] have done bloody well but it's a reality that they are going to lose some games. The public will be disappointed by a defeat but they will be accepting of it and be reasonable if there is a good performance."

Whatever fears an All Black coach may hold, they should be voiced privately, believes Hart. He can remember at the start of 1998 being aware that it was going to be a tough year.

"We had lost Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Jones, Ian Jones, Frank Bunce and Zinzan Brooke, so I knew it was going to be difficult. I didn't know quite how difficult. But I didn't make any comment publicly. You open yourself up if you do that."

Hart's recollection is that the All Blacks lost one game badly that year and were unfortunate in the other four. A tough refereeing call in the final Tri Nations test where South African hooker James Dalton was awarded a dubious try late in the game was a killer blow.

As tense as he was and aware of the All Blacks' frailties and lack of experience in 1998, Hart didn't believe it would have been wise to try to broker some appeasement in advance. The defeats came and he and the side had to wear them.

That's maybe what Henry and the All Blacks of 2009 needed to do. There are obvious parallels with 1998 in that, at least for the June tests, the side was shorn of key leaders such as Richie McCaw, Ali Williams, Rodney So'oialo and of course, Dan Carter.

With the exodus of talent in 2006, 2007 and to a lesser extent 2008, the current squad contains 10 players in their rookie tests seasons with another five players who have fewer than 20 caps each.

As results and performances testify, this is not a vintage All Black side. Their lack of experience and star quality is hurting them. They are weak, by recent standards, in crucial positions.

Some of the senior players are not in the same inspiring form as last year, but the biggest factor is the continued absence of Carter which has robbed the side of fluidity and stability.

The challenges for Henry and his All Blacks are significant. A knowledgeable rugby public can see that. But it was surely a mis-reading of their tolerance to suggest they should be prepared to accept defeat more regularly.

And that is what Henry was doing - trying to soften the blow - to prepare everyone for the worst.

If you say it in advance, it almost serves as an exoneration. It takes much of the sting out of the reaction when you can point to your own prophetic words.

The most interesting thing to ponder is whether Henry was so candid with the New Zealand Rugby Union board ahead of his re-appointment.

Should Henry have forewarned the board about the likelihood of more test losses in the next year?

"I think the board is a different matter," says Hart. "You have to assess where you are and be upfront about that."

The board may have accepted the reality, but if the All Blacks lose overnight, the public won't be more sympathetic just because this was flagged in advance.