All Blacks: Gregor Paul - Why the real drama is still to come

The real drama for the All Blacks may still be waiting to happen, writes Gregor Paul. Photo / Photosport

OPINION:

Given the dramas they have had dealing with the here and now, it's maybe not surprising that the All Blacks haven't had much, if any, of an eye to the future this year.

It has not been a year so far – or indeed a World Cup cycle to date – in which there has been much future-proofing of the team to ensure that the All Blacks can smoothly transition into 2024 after a number of senior players inevitably call it quits at the end of next year.

Whoever has charge of the team in 2024 may be facing a bumpy ride trying to rebuild a team that will most likely be short of experience and potentially short of options in a handful of positions.

It may in fact be more of a hard landing and however much of a battle the last few years have been for the national team, the real drama may still be waiting to happen.

That the team may hit a wall in 2024 and be forced to begin a major rebuild is a problem being stored for the future, but it's also an underappreciated current issue.

There hasn't in the last few years been enough opportunity provided to the next generation to grab 20 minutes of game time here and there – the occasional start even – to build their exposure and, potentially, build the pressure on the incumbent group of veterans who are at the core of this All Blacks team.

The lack of pressure through selection and opportunity has meant there has been a lack of tension in the squad and consistent feedback of the environment being a little soft.

In positions where new blood has been injected the impact has been obvious and nowhere more so than the front row.

If, assuming everyone was fit, the preferred starting front row in July was Ofa Tuungafasi, Codie Taylor and Nepo Laulala, it no longer is.

Ethan de Groot during an All Blacks training session. Photo / Photosport

Injury, suspension and form have all combined to create a new pecking order and now Ethan de Groot, Samisoni Taukei'aho and Tyrel Lomax are the probable preferred starting unit, with George Bower, Taylor and Fletcher Newell the bench men.

The only major future-proofing to be done now is to expose at least one more, if not two, younger hookers to test football to increase the talent pool for 2024.

And in that regard, the time has probably come for the All Blacks selectors to make a choice between Taylor and Dane Coles – it feels like there is only room now for one, not both, and that Asafo Aumua should be recalled for the European tour.

But there are bigger problems to worry about than hooker as the All Blacks haven't taken the opportunity to grow their options at lock. They have identified Tupou Vaa'i as a long-term selection, but having thrust him into the squad in 2020, he's barely played for the national team in the last two years.

The worry now is that the All Blacks have spent the last 10 years heavily reliant on Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick and come 2024 it's probable both will have retired from test rugby.

Scott Barrett has grown into a world class lock but the sudden absence of Retallick and Whitelock will hurt in 2024 if the likes of Vaa'i and Josh Lord still haven't played many, if any, big tests.

Dalton Papalii is being spoken about as a future All Blacks captain, but despite being the form number seven in Super Rugby, he didn't feature in either matchday 23 in South Africa.

Dalton Papalii has yet to be properly given a chance with the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport

Sam Cane will be 32 at the start of 2024 and while he's tough and undoubtedly a warrior, he plays in a position that takes an incredible physical toll and it would be wise for the All Blacks to be building Papalii's game time now.

Hoskins Sotutu is another who was identified in 2020 as a long-term prospect, but despite continually being picked in the squad, he's hardly ever been put on the field.

The All Blacks still don't have an alternative option at No 8 to Ardie Savea, who is not a natural in that role.

Cullen Grace, arguably the man best suited to becoming a world class No 8 by 2027, isn't even in the squad.

Even bigger problems lie ahead at first-five where Richie Mo'unga has confirmed he'll be taking a contract in Japan in 2024 and possibly in 2025, and while Beauden Barrett hasn't yet declared his thinking, the odds would be in favour of him shifting offshore in 2024.

Even bigger problems lie ahead at first-five where Richie Mo'unga has confirmed he'll be taking a contract in Japan in 2024 and possibly in 2025, and while Beauden Barrett hasn't yet declared his thinking, the odds would be in favour of him shifting offshore in 2024.

Stephen Perofeta is in the squad but hasn't won a cap yet and while Damian McKenzie has significant test experience, he doesn't as a No 10 and there is no doubt New Zealand is looking at a massive playmaking problem if Barrett is not available in 2024.