All Blacks: First choice and the worst choice

Should Stephen Donald (left) or Luke McAlister wear the All Blacks No 10 jersey? Photo / Getty Images

It's the biggest first five-eighths debate since Grant Fox and Frano Botica. Should Stephen Donald or Luke McAlister be first choice in the All Black No 10 jersey? Paul Lewis attempts an analysis

There is a key difference in the 2009 first five-eighths debate. When Grant Fox and Frano Botica were squaring off for the same All Black jersey all those years ago, it was a debate about who was best.

This time, it's about who is not the worst.

As ever in New Zealand rugby, opinion is divided. Herald on Sunday rugby writer Gregor Paul last week plumped for Donald.

"We all know McAlister can play. He's a gifted talent, blessed with all he needs to cut open a defence. But he's a second five.

He's never convinced in the No 10 jersey, the technical and tactical demands being too great for his instinctive urges and desire to back himself," wrote Paul last week.

"Donald has to start and everyone has to shut their eyes and hope for the best."

Former All Black selector Peter Thorburn says McAlister. So does another former selector and former first five-eighths, Earle Kirton, himself part of a first five-eighths debate from many years ago, involving Mac Herewini, Bruce Watt and Peter Murdoch.

Herald on Sunday columnist Richard Loe says Donald should start "because McAlister hasn't shown me anything that suggests he should be back in the All Blacks at this stage".

Sean Fitzpatrick plumps for Donald and says McAlister should start at 12, in place of Ma'a Nonu. Lee Stensness, former All Black inside back, says: "Donald – I think they have to show some faith in him. Dan Carter's injury might mean some difficulties for the All Blacks this season but, long-term, he's worth persisting with."

Former All Black first five Ross Brown says: "McAlister is a class player and should start – but he doesn't look all that fit or tuned to test rugby yet, to me.'

So how can a decision be made?

Injury means McAlister will start against Australia on July 18 but who is the better bet long-term?

STEPHEN DONALD

Control: 5/10
Doesn't yet boss a game against class opposition.
Has done well enough against more minor opponents but doesn't yet give the strong feeling that his kicking and fieldcraft will get opponents dancing to the All Blacks' tune.

Tackling: 6.5/10
Solid, without being exemplary but not a defence channel that the opposition would see as exploitable. Gets stuck in at the breakdown too.

Vision: 4.5/10
Often gives the impression of not having the instinct, the wide-angle lens vision of the field and the players that class international first-fives are expected to possess. Needs time to develop it, sure, but the jury is still out as to whether it is there to be developed.

Passing: 6.5/10
Can sometimes be sloppy but Donald has a good off-load which plays into the hands of All Black runners onto the ball.

Form: 5/10
Better than McAlister's – which isn't saying much – looked jittery against the French defence in both tests and his confidence seemed to take a dent.

Running: 7/10
Donald runs well, runs hard, but is a direct runner – sometimes easy meat for a well-organised defence when the All Blacks forwards (as lately) haven't been making ground. Does ask questions of defences, however.

Goalkicking: 6/10
Grant Fox, he's not and that might be a key element in the choice on No 10. There is no other recognised goalkicker in the All Blacks – especially now Piri Weepu is considered only a Bench Black – and the test against the Wallabies will probably swing on the chances offered/chances taken equation.

Kicking from hand: 4/10
His long kicking is not always accurate and sometimes delays so much that he is a charge-down risk. His attacking chip kicks and dinks have usually been poor this test season, mostly just returning the ball to the opposition.

LUKE MCALISTER

Control: 6/10
Similar to Donald, hasn't yet bossed a game against class opposition from No 10, except perhaps the third test against the Lions – his debut – in 2005. Seems to have more potential to steer the All Blacks round the field.

Tackling: 5.5/10
Good tackler although gets bounced off from time to time when he tries the shoulder stuff. Also good enough not to be targeted as a weakness.

Vision: 6/10
Has better vision out of the two options – although you'd have been hard-pressed to see that against Italy. His execution let him down a few times but seems to have more time and better analytical faculties under pressure.

Form: 4.5/10
That first 20 minutes was a true nightmare – possibly the worst 20 minutes from an All Black first five in modern times.
Donald has the edge here although, again, that ain't saying much.

Running: 6/10
Looked rusty and confused against Italy and obviously needs more time. However, has in the past shown an ability to break the line through a variety of elusive measures.

Goalkicking: 7/10
More reliable and more composed at the goalkicks, his efforts at the sticks against Italy were much better than the rest of his game.
Could be the difference against the Wallabies – we hope...

Kicking from hand: 5.5/10
His long kicking is also not always accurate but generally looks sharper than Donald in this area. His kicking came better after that horror first 20 minutes last Saturday.

Passing: 6/10
Marked down because of some woeful passes against Italy but, when in form and with more miles under his belt, is a good distributor.

CONCLUSION

So there isn't much in it – except for one factor: experience.

Donald has 11 previous tests but has started in only two: the Hong Kong Bledisloe Cup game against the Wallabies last year and against Scotland on last year's end of season tour. He also started the nearly-lost match against Munster. He has not yet convinced that he can deliver, at this level, under pressure.

You could justifiably say the same about McAlister. In his 25 test matches, he has started at 10 only four times – against the 2005 Lions on Eden Park (when he played well in the third of the 3-0 test whitewash); twice against Ireland in 2006 (when he scored the winning try in the second half in an admittedly less-than thrilling All Black display in this series) and against Romania during the 2007 World Cup.

So he doesn't have a lot of form; he doesn't have a lot of recent time at 10 – but he does have top-line experience against quality opposition in the full intensity of a closely-contested test match.

And there's that goalkicking.