All Blacks: Empty nest for 2012

Dan Carter will be in high demand after the World Cup. Photo / Getty Images

Redemption at next year's World Cup is high on the agenda for the All Blacks but, as Gregor Paul reports, this could result in a tough period in 2012.

In a perverse way, it was fortunate for New Zealand rugby that the 2007 World Cup campaign was such a major disaster.

Crashing out in the quarterfinal left the senior All Blacks angry and determined to make amends.

Had the All Blacks made the final, given it everything and come up short, it's unlikely so many key players would have signed on for another crack in 2011.

But the horror of Cardiff was too strong to ignore. Those involved couldn't walk away from New Zealand like that.

The New Zealand Rugby Union had an inkling those demons could be exploited. Having seen seven of the 2007 World Cup squad head offshore after the tournament, the national body had to move fast in 2008 to stop others from disappearing.

The key to the retention battle was signing Richie McCaw and Dan Carter through to 2011. They put serious money on the table and allowed both the sabbatical option.

Once those blocks were in place, Carter and McCaw made the call they had to stay and win the World Cup if they had any chance of fulfilling their goals of becoming legendary, iconic All Blacks.

Those two then rallied their mates, persuading them to hang around as well. Arms didn't need to be twisted too hard. The shame of 2007 burned and, while the likes of Mils Muliaina, Rodney So'oialo, Sitiveni Sivivatu were offered huge money to leave, they all signed up for more, citing the need for World Cup redemption as a key to staying.

The success rate of the NZRU's targeted retention plan has been phenomenal. They had to pay a bit more than they planned to sign everyone, but they have surpassed expectation and given the All Blacks the best possible chance of succeeding in 2011. Of the 2007 World Cup squad, 20 players will be available again for 2011.

But what about 2012? Life will go on regardless of whether the All Blacks win the World Cup or not. The growing worry is that the focus on 2011 has been so intense that 2012 will swing around soon enough and the game here will be bereft of what it needs to sustain success.

The national body was careful to look beyond 2007 and have more than half the likely World Cup squad signed to the end of 2008 and beyond. That bought them some time to work a retention campaign and also the ability to weather what they knew would be an inevitable exodus in a World Cup year.

This time around, though, probably more than half the All Black World Cup squad will disappear after the tournament. Only Ali Williams, Jimmy Cowan and Luke McAlister are currently signed through to 2012.

The list of players off contract in 2011 includes McCaw, Carter, Muliaina, So'oialo, Sivivatu, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Neemia Tialata, Brad Thorn, Chris Jack and Ma'a Nonu.

Some will have reached the end of the All Black road by then anyway. Others will still have much to offer but will head offshore.

2012 will be a tough year for the All Blacks - a new coaching panel merging with an inexperienced group of players is not the ideal mix.

There has to be confidence that a new generation will be emerging by then. Owen Franks, Anthony Boric, Sam Whitelock, Victor Vito, Alby Mathewson, Cory Jane and Richard Kahui are promising indeed. Will they, though, be ready to be All Black leaders? Do they have the same experience and talent of the men they will be replacing? And will they have enough quality around them to form a winning side?

Other than Franks, which props will be ready to hold an All Black scrum steady? Behind Hore and Mealamu, who is a test-class hooker? The injury-prone Corey Flynn will turn 31 in 2012 and options are scant after him.

If either or both of Jerome Kaino and Adam Thomson were to up sticks in 2012, quality would be thin in the loose trio and is there a second five of test class in New Zealand other than Ma'a Nonu?

The big, big concern is the absence of a No 10 anywhere near Carter's class. And nor is there an openside with anything like the same aerobic capacity and feel for the game as McCaw. As for a captain should McCaw move on... Kieran Read? Boric?

2012 is going to be a much tougher year for the All Blacks than 2008. The starting team in 2012 will be vastly different and less experienced to the one that plays in the World Cup, begging the question - is there anything that can be done to smooth the transition?

There is, of course, one thing that would change everything - amending the All Black eligibility laws. If the selectors could pick players offshore, they would open the prospect of using the likes of Carter and Nonu - should they depart - in 2012 to steer the side.

The argument against change is built on the belief it would damage domestic competitions; that players would leave in greater volumes if they could sign for a European club and be available for the All Blacks.

"The risk is so great," says NZRU chief executive Steve Tew. "The question to ask is how would everyone feel if there were 30-40 eligible All Blacks playing offshore? "Nothing has changed. The French have been saying for some time they want to have fewer foreign players. The salary cap in England has had no bearing on how much money clubs pay players. The demand is still high and even if I'm wrong and the demand is only there for 10 leading players - it's still 10 players not here.

"It's such an important decision for us. But at the moment we believe retaining our best talent in this country, to play in our competitions, in front of our fans is the right decision."

It might, however, prove to be more damaging on every level for New Zealand to have a weak All Black side. If the new coaches in 2012 could pick a few senior players based offshore to stiffen the national side, is that not a risk worth taking? Why not bolster the side with a few old hands on a short-term basis while the next generation are brought up to speed?

It's something the NZRU will have to consider and they have to do so now. To wait until 2012 and suddenly change will reek of panic and send out all the wrong signals to those players who have stayed and also to international opponents.

The decision is not about the now, it is about the future and realising just how much danger lies ahead.

KEY ALL BLACKS OFF CONTRACT IN 2011

Richie McCaw
Age in 2012: 31
World Cups: 2003, 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
By 2011 McCaw, barring injury, will have 100-plus test caps, will have played in three World Cups, will have captained the All Blacks more than Sean Fitzpatrick and played in 11 Super Rugby campaigns.

He'll have done everything there is to do in New Zealand rugby and it's unlikely, although not inconceivable, he will extend his contract to stay.

The most likely option is that he retires from all rugby. His body has been battered since 2000 and he's taken several major blows to the head.

Financially, he's probably set for life so has little need to sign a 'pension fund' contract offshore. He's also the kind of person who would struggle to wear a jersey he didn't believe in.

One other possibility is that he retires from test football but stays available for Super 14 and NPC - as Tana Umaga did in 2006 and 2007.

Dan Carter
Age in 2012: 29
World Cups: 2003, 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
Carter has made no secret of the fact he loved the lifestyle he experienced while on sabbatical in Perpignan last year. Returning there, to play more than the eight games he managed in 2009, is something that will hold great appeal.

He will probably have one big contract left in him and, having achieved almost as much as McCaw, there won't be much to keep him here after 2011.

Every ambitious club in Europe will want him but Perpignan will have pole position.

Tony Woodcock
Age in 2012: 31
World Cups: 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
At 31, Woodcock should have plenty left in his tank. Aggressive props who can scrum are in huge demand overseas and Woodcock will have the opportunity to cash in on his reputation and see out his career in a different part of the world.

With young children, he might want to travel before they reach school age and then come home to start a farming career in earnest.

Andrew Hore
Age in 2012: 33
World Cups: 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
Hore has lived a nomadic life for the better part of the last decade. He has played for the Hurricanes since 2002, after he joined Taranaki in 2001 from Otago. He kept a farm in Otago meaning he splits his life between three venues and he might feel it's time for him to pack it all in, live in one place and farm full-time.

It's hard to see him playing overseas and, at 33, he might not be in huge demand, or at least he might not command the sort of retirement contract that would make it all worthwhile.

But he is fit, strong and playing well so maybe he'll do a Brad Thorn and just carry on, cautiously, contracting from year-to-year and assessing his body month-to-month.

Neemia Tialata
Age in 2012: 29
World Cups: 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
By propping standards, Tialata will still be relatively young in 2012 - maybe even just coming into his prime. The question for him will be whether he needs a change of scene after nine seasons in New Zealand or whether he is still driven by the All Black jersey.

Tipping him towards a move will be his continued struggle with his knees, which are regularly painful and can restrict his training.

He'll probably have one last big contract in him and he might feel it's time to safeguard his financial future much in the same way Carl Hayman did this year when he signed with Toulon.

Props who can handle both sides of the scrum are in huge demand in Europe and are paid phenomenally well.

Mils Muliaina
Age in 2012: 31
World Cups: 2003, 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
Muliaina came close to leaving in 2009. Toulon had made an enormous offer and he was very tempted. Correcting 2007 was a huge factor in keeping him here and it's hard to see him staying beyond 2011.

He'll have most likely won 100 test caps and with the Chiefs certain to have a new coach in 2012 after Ian Foster's confirmation he will stand down after next year, Muliaina might feel they will also need a new captain if they are to make a genuinely fresh start.

Demand might not be so high in 2012 as it was last year when there were several offshore offers for Muliaina to ponder but a 100-test All Black still holding down a regular place is likely to be wanted by someone.

Keven Mealamu
Age in 2012: 32
World Cups: 2003, 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
Mealamu is the classic family man and, with his kids now school age, an overseas contract might not appeal. Nor is he guaranteed to be offered big money given his age and mileage.

Retiring is certainly one option but he clearly still loves playing; still loves being captain of the Blues - a job which he is growing into - and still loves playing for his country.

The NZRU might work hard to persuade one of Hore or Mealamu to hang on after 2011, as there is no obvious successor at hooker. Having Mealamu around would be beneficial as he could help mentor a younger player into the jersey.

Ma'a Nonu
Age in 2012: 29
World Cups: 2003, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
Predicting what Nonu might do is not easy - he's his own man and does his own thing. He'll have been an All Black for nine years by the end of the next World Cup - a massive stint by modern standards - and that might well be enough for him.
He has stayed in New Zealand not so much to avenge the collective failure of 2007 but to prove the coaches were wrong to leave him out of their 30-man squad.

From being in and out between 2003-07, he's finally become a regular and formed a crucial partnership with Conrad Smith.

Everything points towards Nonu leaving in 2012, as his line-breaking and ball running will be sought by the biggest clubs. But with Nonu... you never know.

Sitiveni Sivivatu
Age in 2012: 29
World Cups: 2007, 2011
NZRU Contract: Expires end of 2011

Likely Future?
Like most senior players who came off contract in 2009, Sivivatu had a good look at what was on offer in Europe. There was big interest from France where his Fijian passport would allow him to be considered a domestic rather than international player.

He'll have done 10 years in New Zealand and may well be under pressure to hold his place on the All Black wing.

It feels like it will be time for him to exit stage left as the big French clubs will still be interested.