KEY POINTS:
Where there is some pessimism about the Wellington weather tonight, there is also uncertainty about the All Blacks ability to sustain their Decade of Dominance against the Springboks.
It is a domestic record which dates back to the time when test rugby was still played at Athletic Park during daylight hours. Conditions were not always favourable then, either, when the Boks last beat the All Blacks in New Zealand in 1998.
A decade on, the All Blacks' greatest rivals have not repeated that feat. They have been close but have not quite managed to clinch the deal on visits to these shores.
Tests have moved across the harbour city to the new stadium where the All Blacks last lost a domestic test in 2003, narrowly beaten 15-13 on a shocking night by England, who later went on to become World Cup champions.
Since then the All Blacks have won a record 29 successive domestic tests, as they have repelled any teams crossing the coastline. There were some duds, but the Springboks, Wallabies, England, Argentina, Pacific Islanders, Lions, Ireland _ they have all been beaten, several in admittedly close results.
The Boks came closest to upsetting the run in 2004 and 2005 but were nudged out by some All Black inspiration and their own lack of self-belief.
The visitors do not lack conviction after their surge to the top of the rugby world last year in Paris and have built on a run of success since they last fell, heavily, 33-6, to the All Blacks last year in Christchurch.
Australian referee Stu Dickinson controlled that international and is back tonight for this test, which will be the first played under the new laws which have invaded the game. He can get rattled, too, and his level of control, with his touch judges, will be vital.
"Scrum, lineout, protecting the ball at the tackle, the rudiments and fundamentals of the game are still there," All Black coach Graham Henry said. "If the referee is accurate at the tackle, and a team is highly skilled, it will increase the spectacle."
While the All Blacks have just got in and got on with the bulk of the changes, interrupted by the visits from Ireland and England, some key Boks, such as skipper John Smit, lock Victor Matfield and five-eighths Butch James, have not experienced the changes.
They are all fine footballers but they will not yet feel instinctive about the laws; there will be some hesitation which may turn out to be critical moments on a night when the forecast is for poor weather.
Smit is unsure about the rationale behind the changes, and if some moments in this test hinge on those interpretations, his scepticism and that of his team may suffer.
A small matter, perhaps, but in games of this significance minor issues can swell into major dramas.
The interruption this week for the All Blacks has been the health of lock Ali Williams. He banged his already tender ankle again at training this week and while the staff maintain he will play, he may struggle to last the distance in his 50th test.
"This is a journey into the unknown in some sense because a number in our side have not had much international experience," Henry said.
That must be the concern. Looseforwards Jerome Kaino and Adam Thomson are just cutting their test teeth, Andy Ellis and Rudi Wulf are not long into their careers in the backs.
The Boks, by contrast, have the bulk of their World Cup-winning side. They understand the mentality needed to win tight, tough contests but they have not managed that in New Zealand for a long time. They will bring their traditional methods of bludgeoning forward power welded to a more inventive approach in thebacks.
"The Boks are a quality rugby side, aren't they?" Henry said. "It is the side we have the biggest contest against. They are a very traditional foe. In New Zealand the Springboks-All Black rugby is seen as pretty special. Historically it has been the major contest and that hasn't changed."
For all their swagger and lineout size in the pack, the Springboks may not be as solid in the scrums. Their back five is quality, Smit is a top-drawer hooker but there are questions about the technique and solidity of their props.
Enter Daniel Carter. The All Blacks may be down on some experience but they have the master five-eighths. If he is in sync and gets enough ball, his medley of kicks and knowledge of conditions at the Cake Tin will be invaluable and a crucial factor in the All Blacks ability to continue their great home test record.
ALL BLACKS
Wellington, tonight, 7.35
Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Aus)
Mils Muliaina
Sitiveni Sivivatu
Conrad Smith
Ma'a Nonu
Rudi Wulf
Dan Carter
Andy Ellis
Jerome Kaino
Rodney So'oialo (c)
Adam Thomson
Ali Willliams
Brad Thorn
Greg Somerville
Andrew Hore
Tony Woodcock
SPRINGBOKS
Conrad Jantjes
Odwa Ndungane
Adrian Jacobs
Jean de Villiers
Bryan Habana
Butch James
Ricky Januarie
Joe van Niekerk
Juan Smith
Schalk Burger
Victor Matfield
Bakkies Botha
CJ van der Linde
John Smit (c)
G. Steenkamp
New Zealand: Keven Mealamu, Neemia Tialata, Anthony Boric, Sione Lauaki, Halfback to be named, Stephen Donald, Leon MacDonald.
South Africa: Bismarck du Plessis, Brian Mujati, Andries Bekker, Luke Watson, Bolla Conradie, Francois Steyn, Percy Montgomery.
