2011 calling the young ones

Counties-Manukau wing Leila Masaga. Picture / Paul Estcourt

The inaugural national championship has been a snore. The standard has been dismal. The crowds have stayed away. There's too much footy on the screen ...

Whether you agree with the flurry of negatives wafting about since the Air New Zealand Cup began on July 28, touch wood, things are about to change.

The All Blacks are drifting back into the fray this week, so fans are entitled to expect a rise in quality. On top of that, the Top Six playoffs last week showed that domestic rugby can still be rousing, even if the skills aren't necessarily of the highest order.

So what's been the big positive out of the Cup? The chance to assess New Zealand's rugby future.

When the All Blacks were on international duty, along with the subsequent stand down period, coaches were obliged to dig deeper for their resources.

That, combined with the New Zealand Rugby Union's decision to give all 14 applicants a chance in the brave new domestic rugby landscape. Argue all you like about the wisdom of opening the door to give everyone a crack, with its resulting diminishing of quality, but the most fascinating aspect of this competition has been getting an early look at future All Blacks.

Twenty of this year's New Zealand Colts have played in the Cup. In many cases, they might not have got an opportunity for another season or two. Some have yet to set the competition alight, others most certainly have.

"There are a number of players who are possibly a year ahead of where they would have been, but some will become household names," said Greg Cooper, coach of this year's New Zealand Colts.

Cooper, who is also coach of the Highlanders in the Super 14, is sure a number of his squad who were beaten in the semifinals of June's world under-21 championship by South Africa before beating Australia for third are potential All Blacks. Super 14 faces in the next few years? Absolutely.

Time was that players would do one of three things:

Continue their age group development to become All Blacks in a type of natural steps on a ladder progression;

Be outstanding players at the under 19 or Colts level but go no further, having reached their full potential;

Or they were the late bloomers, players who had dipped beneath the selectorial radar during the age grades only to emerge at senior provincial level to leave selectors scratching their heads in a "how did we miss him" manner.

That still exists. Take at random a national under 19 or Colts team from the past 10 years. Several names will have become All Blacks or regular Super Rugby players, but a fair number won't have kicked on. That's the way it works.

However Cooper - who was Colts fullback in 1985 then the All Black No 15 the following year in the Baby All Blacks against France - believes fewer talented players will slip through the cracks as New Zealand has put systems in place designed to scoop up anyone who might have something to offer.

"It's different nowadays. Back then we probably didn't have the structures in place to identify talent at an early age. Guys like Zinzan Brooke and Mike Brewer were always going to be on the radar screen. You were never going to miss that talent - but there are others who could have been New Zealand Colts. But also, not everyone is going to make the Colts - and not everyone who makes it is going to move on."

Taranaki lock Jason Eaton is now rated among the top four in the country and has played eight tests. The All Black selectors are known to rate highly his enthusiasm and willingness to learn.

Eaton, 24, did not make any national age group team. He spent a couple of seasons at Manawatu before moving to Taranaki in 2004 where he was in the B team before making the jump last year.

After only nine NPC first division games he got the call for the end-of-year All Black tour and has not looked back. Proof, if it is still needed, that the accepted path to the top is not the only way to make it.

"The success rate is getting better and better purely because of the systems.

"But it's also how you move forward if you're not selected, because we all know a kick, or little bit of adversity, can be a tonic for success," Cooper added.

He has noticed a distinct difference between New Zealand's Colts-level players and those of England, Australia and South Africa.

Broadly speaking, he believes New Zealand's decision-making abilities and skill levels are superior to the other countries, but they lack the others physicality.

"Take Stephen Brett. His decision making and skill set is very advanced for someone who is 20. We will probably move more in the future towards looking at getting younger players more physically developed.

"At the elite level, we can combine physical and decision-making skills to be the top in the world at the moment. But at under 19 or 21, sometimes you're striking more physically dominant opponents.

"Your skills, while making you competitive, may not necessarily make you dominant."

So what of 2011 and the up and comers? There are no guarantees, but take a quick glance around the Top Six Cup teams.

At Auckland, young wing David Smith and first five-eighth Lachie Munro - who only started taking rugby seriously three years ago - have caught the eye. Isaia Toeava has already worn black.

North Harbour's contribution to the Colts this year included a tall lock, Ryan Wilson, whose progress will be worth monitoring, and speedy fullback George Pisi, who has the ability to electrify a game.

Waikato have Colts vice-captain Richard Kahui, Dwayne Sweeney and William Ripia in the backs, flankers Liam Messam - perhaps the outstanding loose forward figure in the Cup so far - and Steven Setephano and rugged lock Toby Lynn making strong progress.

Wellington have just given little halfback Alby Mathewson, one of the standouts at the Colts world champs, a chance, plus flanker Serge Lilo and lock Jeremy Thrush.

Canterbury have a conveyer belt of young talent, such as flanker/No 8 Kieran Read, another loose forward, Michael Paterson, first five-eighth Brett and halfback Andy Ellis.

Otago rate backs Craig Clare and Callum Bruce.

Outside the six, Lelia Masaga is a hot prospect at Counties Manukau; Jamie Mackintosh is a big propping slab at Southland, and captained the Colts this year; Bay of Plenty flanker Tanerau Latimer's education took a leap forward at the Crusaders this year.

This is no definitive list. All these players are 23 or younger. Some will fade in time, others will be about in 2011.


Kieran Read

Canterbury
Age 20
National under 19 and under 21 rep. NZ Colt this year. Strong, rangy Papakura-born loose forward who has all the hallmarks of being an All Black-in-waiting. Good athlete, powerful runner. Made an under 17 New Zealand cricket tournament team, too.

David Smith

Auckland
Age 20
Powerful wing who pulls spectators out of their seats. Relatively recent arrival from Samoa, bypassed age group system. Far from finished product, but fast, with sharp acceleration, and slalom-style running finds the gaps. Brilliant 60m solo try against Waikato.

Richard Kahui

Waikato
Age 21
NZ Colts vice-captain this year, exciting talent. Two tries v Canterbury, three v Northland. A player defences need to watch. Has good speed and is surrounded by quality backs. A bright future.

Lelia Masaga

Counties Manukau
Age 20
NZ Colts wing this year. Nicknamed Flash. Operating outside The Big Six. Quality finisher, plenty of pace. Had a taste with the Chiefs this year. Should get more chances with Sitiveni Sivivatu on reconditioning duties for first half of next year.


But, lest we forget

There's a clutch of current All Blacks who will fancy being around for the 2011 World Cup on home soil.

Age suggests they have a good chance. The unknowns are the issues of wear and tear - which is becoming an increasingly significant concern in a more physically demanding professional rugby environment - and whether the current incumbents will be able to hold off the challenges from the young thrusters eager to make the grade in time.

This also assumes these All Blacks don't suffer a glaring tail-off in form and remain high-calibre footballers.

Among the forwards the most likely to still be banging bodies in 2011, purely on age, are prop Neemia Tialata and locks James Ryan and Jason Eaton.

Tialata will be 29 in 2011, So will Eaton, while Ryan, who is poised to return from shoulder surgery after months of recuperation, will be 28.

Then there's lock Ali Williams and loosehead Tony Woodcock, both of whom will be 30. So will captain Richie McCaw - but if his body is still holding together in five years time, considering the pounding it has already taken, he should donate it to science instead.

Of the backs, Luke McAlister, Joe Rokocoko and Piri Weepu will be 28. Daniel Carter, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Ma'a Nonu 29 and Aaron Mauger 30.

If the national selectors' judgment proves fully vindicated, versatile Isaia Toeava will be in his prime, at 25.