NZME’s rugby writers Gregor Paul, Liam Napier and Elliott Smith answer all the big questions ahead of the Rugby World Cup.
Gregor Paul: That come the quarter-final, they fall into one of their infamous mental black holes - (last 20 minutes against Australia 2022; last 10 minutes of England test 2022; record defeat to South Africa 2023) - and get trapped in a vicious cycle of not being able to win the ball or hold the ball, giving away penalties, picking up yellow cards, conceding points at an alarming rate and self-destructing themselves out of the World Cup.
Liam Napier: Injuries, cards and whether their forward pack can lay a consistent platform. Injuries to Tyrel Lomax, Brodie Retallick and Shannon Frizell already strip three influential figures from the All Blacks starting pack. While they should all return by the quarter-finals, they can’t afford any further setbacks.
Elliott Smith: Playing for 80 minutes. Rugby World Cups don’t allow for lapses and there’s been too many of them over the last three years. The likes of France, Ireland and South Africa will swallow up the All Blacks if they’re off their game for even a few minutes. Can I have a second bonus answer? The make-up of their bench and whether they are getting bang for buck from their finishing eight.
Gregor Paul: Their ability to play at a speed that no other side can live with. Against South Africa in Auckland, Argentina in Mendoza and Australia in Melbourne, the All Blacks were so direct, powerful and accurate that they were able to launch relentless waves of attack that couldn’t be contained. Just as they are prone to self-destructing, so too can they hit purple patches in which they destroy everything in their path.
Liam Napier: Need for speed. When the All Blacks generate front-foot ball, when they play the game at their desired pace and tempo, few, if any, teams can stick with them. Give Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Mark Telea room to move and they will punish the best defensive sides. The further the World Cup progresses, though, the tighter matches become.
Elliott Smith: The fact this time they are not overwhelming favourites. The pressure being off (somewhat) may allow them to play without a weight of expectation few All Blacks teams are allowed - while they came firmly back into Cup contention with their first three tests of the year, the last two have shown they are still not quite there with the top teams. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t win, but the pressure valve is off a little.
Gregor Paul: Jordie Barrett brings a size, skill set and all-round contribution to second five-eighths that can’t be replicated by anyone else in the squad. If he is ruled out, the All Blacks don’t have anyone who can deliver the direct running, big defence, clever kicking and strong communication that he does.
Liam Napier: Losing Aaron Smith would send shudders through the All Blacks as they do not possess any other halfback with his composure or experience. Cam Roigard staked a serious claim with his second appearance off the bench at Twickenham, but there’s a big difference from that occasion to attempting to control a World Cup knockout match from the outset.
Elliott Smith: Ardie Savea. You can make compelling arguments for Aaron Smith and Jordie Barrett too, (as I suspect my colleagues might), but the loose forward stocks, if you take out Savea, are particularly thin - having taken an extra wing - and with Jacobson/Papali’i deputising for Frizell for the time being, things could get quite interesting if Savea were to go down.
Gregor Paul: Produce three outstanding performances in the knockout rounds. They don’t have to be wildly creative in those last three games - but they do have to be tactically smart, physically robust, resilient, accurate, clinical, composed. Win the big moments in the big games and they will win the tournament.
Liam Napier: Win three knockout tests in succession. Sounds simple enough but it really isn’t. Four years ago the All Blacks produced one of their best performances to dump Ireland out at the quarter-final stage. The following week they weren’t close to where they needed to be mentally. And they paid the ultimate price. Performing at your peak three weeks in a row is near impossible. Minimising significant dips, and being good enough to grind out a semifinal win, is the secret ingredient to World Cup success.
Elliott Smith: Revert to their form from the first three tests of the year. Find the discipline again, be the bullies at the set piece and breakdown and play like believers. That was a team that made the world think the All Blacks were back.
Gregor Paul: The performance of the Pacific Island sides, Fiji, Samoa and Tonga. It has been a while since any of them had any impact at a World Cup, but the change in eligibility laws and the presence of the Drua and Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby has strengthened these three nations. Fiji could make the semis, Samoa might make the last eight and Tonga will be a handful in the pool of death.
Liam Napier: Which top-tier nation(s) get knocked out before the quarter-finals. England, Wales, Australia, Ireland, South Africa, Scotland and Argentina are all vulnerable in their cut-throat pools.
Elliott Smith: Whether the so-called tougher side of the draw burns teams out too early and allows a side from the “weaker” half to come through and not necessarily Steve Bradbury the title, but be in the right form and place at the right time. We saw at the last World Cup that teams who won impressively the previous week in the knockouts couldn’t do it again... will the top-ranked teams flame out?
Gregor Paul: South Africa won’t make it out of their pool. Scotland could be one of many disruptors at this tournament - Fiji and Samoa could also surprise a few people and beat the Boks to sneak through to the last eight. The Boks have seduced a lot of people with the way they beat the All Blacks at Twickenham - but if they stick with this plan to use seven forwards on the bench, it could backfire horribly.
Liam Napier: World Rugby is pig-headed for not adopting the 20-minute red card that allows sent-off players to be replaced after that period. It’s only a matter of time before card controversy becomes the focal talking point of this tournament. That’s not the officials’ fault.
Elliott Smith: The World Cup shouldn’t be here in France in the first place. Great country, don’t get me wrong, but the bidding process was questionable at best and has only looked shadier since. South Africa and Ireland were the other two contenders, both would have put on a hell of a tournament - although I would pray for the livers of those covering the tournament if the latter had won.
Gregor Paul: Going to pick two - Andy Farrell of Ireland and Fabien Galthie of France. These two countries have been head and shoulders better than everyone else throughout this entire World Cup cycle. Smart men who keep finding ways to get more out of their respective players.
Liam Napier: Ask me again on October 30. In truth, it may not be the eventual winner. If Fiji reach the knockouts or, perhaps, their maiden semifinals, Simon Raiwalui must be a contender. Keep in mind he assumed charge of Fiji after Steve Borthwick replaced Eddie Jones with England.
Elliott Smith: Andy Farrell. Has managed to get the best out of his generational talent, but also managed to lift the abilities of the other players around him. That’s the hallmark of a good coach. He has also managed to build on where Joe Schmidt left them after 2019 - and taken the team to new heights.
Gregor Paul: All Blacks win it. World Cups never make sense. Last eight will be Ireland, Scotland, France, New Zealand, Fiji, Australia, Argentina and (just) England.
Liam Napier: Injuries to classy backs Romain Ntamack and Jonathan Danty as well as mainstay forwards Cyril Baille and Paul Willemse hurt France’s chances so I’ll say the Springboks, with the All Blacks losing the final. But it could just as easily be a quarter-final exit at Ireland’s hands.
Elliott Smith: I’ve typed and deleted this about five times now, each with a different winner, so take anything I say here with a grain of salt, but the All Blacks lose to Ireland in the final.
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