For all the talk about the lopsided Rugby World Cup draw, you could argue the All Blacks are ultimately the main beneficiaries.
Because of the draw, and the heavyweight clashes of the quarter-finals, Ian Foster’s men have had a rare opportunity to use a World Cup semifinal asa chance to reset and refocus ahead of the final. Their opponent in the final has emerged bruised from a bloody scrap with England – and with a day less to recover.
You know the background: World Rugby make the draw in December 2020, almost 1000 days before the tournament kicks off. By the time France and New Zealand start proceedings at the Stade de France in early September, Pools A and B are home to the top five ranked teams in the world, given Scotland are in Ireland and South Africa’s pool.
There was widespread disgust that two of the top four sides in the world wouldn’t make it past the quarter-final stage. Scotland fans were simply disgusted that they probably wouldn’t even make it that far.
Which way would the quarter-final chips fall? Would the All Blacks play world No 1 Ireland? Or their biggest rivals, the Springboks? Would France host their main Six Nations rivals or meet the defending world champions?
With the draw made, the opening fixture was one of the two blockbusters of pool play. It also didn’t really count for too much. The winner would play someone wearing green in the last eight and the loser… well, so would they.
“I don’t think we have to rebuild. Stats are stats and I understand all that but in the past, we’ve won all our pool games and not necessarily won a tournament. The goal is to win the tournament,” said Ian Foster after his side lost that first match 27-13. From the outside looking in, it didn’t feel particularly comforting even though the All Blacks team that lost to France was one without Tyrel Lomax, Shannon Frizell, Jordie Barrett and Sam Cane, all key personnel. Brodie Retallick managed 11 minutes off the bench in his recovery from a posterior-cruciate ligament injury.
So, what was next for the All Blacks? Well, Namibia, Italy and Uruguay, but for Foster’s men, it was more than that. It was the chance to get players back. The chance to build towards a quarter-final back at Stade de France five weeks later against someone wearing green. The chance to get things right when it really mattered.
In the penultimate pool match against the Azzurri, those key players missing through injury returned to action, Frizell and Barrett starting, with Lomax and Cane on the bench. Nine starting changes followed against Uruguay.
“We’re pretty clear about what we’re doing,” says Foster.
“The challenge of world cups is you prepare for the here and now with an eye to the future. You’ve got to get that balance right,” he says.
A slightly brighter shade of green would be the path for Foster’s men after Ireland secured the top spot in Pool B with a 36-14 win over Scotland. Ireland fielded a full-strength team against the Scots, two days after the All Blacks dispatched Uruguay 73-0.
Foster’s team found themselves in the last eight as expected, having a fully fit squad to choose from, having had the ability to rest and rotate if needed, and with an extra two days to prepare. All Blacks fans feared the fact Ireland were justifiably the world No 1 team, that they were churning out consistent performances and results in a way that their own team were once renowned for.
In a game that could have gone either way, the All Blacks found the chinks in the Irish defence, but, more significantly, showed the defensive structure and determination that was missing in a home-series defeat less than 18 months ago. To withstand a 37-phase onslaught by the Irish in the closing stages showed the world how far defence coach Scott McLeod and the squad have come.
Beyond Ireland, Argentina lay in wait for the All Blacks, but, with no disrespect to Michael Cheika’s squad, it’s a fixture that Foster’s men were comfortable with. Yes, there have been two recent defeats to Los Pumas, but there’s a familiarity, a knowledge that if they are near to their best, then they’ll win.
Changes to the line-up were minimal: Mark Tele’a returned after a disciplinary issue ruled him out of quarter-final selection, with the only other change being Sam Whitelock restored to the starting line-up, and his long-term second-row partner Brodie Retallick moving to the bench.
After absorbing some early pressure, Will Jordan’s 11th-minute try was already the beginning of the end for Argentina. A 20-6 halftime lead was effectively game over. Of course, it wasn’t easy, but the All Blacks were able to win comfortably without being at their best and also take key personnel off in the knowledge that the game was won; mentally and physically, that will help those players.
In contrast, South Africa won a much closer contest against England that they were losing until a late Handre Pollard penalty secured their place in the final. Their bench needed to be used to win the game. They also have a day’s less rest before next weekend. These factors, added together will make a difference, and when it comes to a final, all differences, however small, are vital.
Hindsight is always easy, but as the All Blacks approach their fifth Rugby World Cup final, they’ve been able to plot their path to potential glory with the benefit of a draw structure that many feared. Now, just one match separates Foster’s team from executing a plan with the perfect ending.