Like an Agatha Christie murder mystery, the All Blacks have been dropping clues all over France about how meticulously they have planned for this World Cup.
For those listening hard enough, the coaching staff and players have mentioned their primary objectiveseveral times – which is that they are aiming to keep evolving tactically, technically and psychologically so that the All Blacks are playing their best rugby in the last three weeks.
It’s not a particularly complex or revelatory plan, but it has been highly effective nevertheless, and despite it carrying an air of the bleeding obvious, it is surprising how few other teams have turned up in France with the same clarity of thought and unity of purpose.
The two tournament favourites are both out, and it’s hard to put a value on how much both France and Ireland would like to swap their pool round victories over the All Blacks and Springboks to be in the semifinals instead of their respective Southern Hemisphere conquerors.
That’s the beauty of a simple mission, it’s easier to keep it in plain sight once the pressure comes on.
As this tournament has unfolded, and now that the team to play Argentina in the semifinal has been revealed, it’s becoming apparent that Ian Foster and his selection team have never been in any danger of losing track of their goal, and that they have been working to a selection plan that was most likely broadly, if not in some detail, sketched out long before they arrived in France.
Nothing has happened by chance and looking back, it gets easier to see how the selectors always knew their own minds.
The decision to inject both Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell on to the bench for the quarter-final caught some by surprise as the significantly more experienced Ofa Tuungafasi and Nepo Laulala had played the majority of game time up until then.
But they were given the game time not because they were the favoured two, but because there was clearly a more pressing intention of keeping Williams and Fletcher fresh.
The two youngsters were given enough game time in the pool stage to keep them active, in-form and hungry – but nowhere near enough to drain them, and it would seem they have been deliberately held back to produce high-energy cameos off the bench in the knock-out rounds.
They are both in the 23 on account of their greater mobility and ability to carry, tackle and cleanout so keeping their workload relatively light until now has made perfect sense.
So too is it obvious that there has long been a plan to split the workloads of the two veteran locks Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick.
The latter is being managed to be at his best for specific assignments – Italy, Ireland and the final - should the All Blacks make it.
After he produced a storming display against Italy – a game in which the All Blacks were determined to make a statement – Retallick was given the week off against Uruguay as Foster deduced that the veteran lock is the sort of player who comes back hard after he has been given time off.
Having hammered himself for 84 minutes against Ireland, Retallick is on the bench this week – the All Blacks can’t risk not having him there against a solid Pumas pack – and will likely start again in the final should the All Blacks make it, with Whitelock reverting to the bench.
The rationale for bringing Samisoni Taukei’aho on to the bench for Dane Coles is similar in that it is designed to not only give the latter a week off – something he physically doesn’t need but it will likely leave him frothing to be involved the following week – but to utilise the former’s leg drive against an Argentinean team that are notoriously difficult to break down.
Playing Taukei’aho also keeps him in the picture to be involved next week if the All Blacks win, and Mark Tele’a is restored to the left wing because he was always going to be restored to the left wing after serving his one-week stand-down for disciplinary reasons.
He was the incumbent, and the All Blacks don’t drop players longer-term if they are injured or disciplined – only on form.
Having picked a team that he probably had provisionally mapped out weeks ago, Foster confirmed that the goal this week is for the All Blacks to be better against Argentina than they were against Ireland.
That’s it he said – that’s their only goal – to keep growing their game, to reach their own standards and not be lulled into making the mistakes they made in 2019 of getting caught up wallowing in their success of the week before.
It’s all so simple and the clarity of thinking is likely to be the All Blacks’ biggest weapon this week.