Ireland it is. And the All Blacks wouldn’t have it any other way.
From the moment the All Blacks lost their World Cup opener, and Ireland defeated the Springboks in their tight, tense, tussle, Ian Foster’s and Andy Farrell’s men were destined to collide ina quarter-final collision for the ages.
Two weeks after quelling South Africa, Ireland’s ruthless 36-14 pool victory over Scotland confirmed the All Blacks will meet the world No 1 in next week’s quarter-final in Paris.
Strap in. The All Blacks and Ireland, one of rugby’s great modern rivalries, is deeply personal.
Despite the daunting nature of the sudden death stakes it’s clear that, given the choice, the All Blacks would prefer to face Ireland - predominately because they have a score to settle.
“We’d love to play Ireland,” All Blacks hooker Dane Coles said. “They’ve been the best team in the world. There’s a few scars with us losing to them, you can’t get away from that fact. It would be a really good opportunity to play them. I know everyone in this team, we’re looking forward to it.”
From the outside, Ireland appear a tougher prospect than the Springboks.
Under Farrell, the Six Nations champions have morphed into the world’s best side to carve a 17-test unbeaten run. That doesn’t happen by chance. No tier one nation has won more than 18 tests in a row.
Ireland’s relentless efficiency, resolute defence, methodical, meticulous attacking shapes, depth and composure pose problems for any team. Their ferocious breakdown work across the park, though, is the chief concern for the All Blacks, who often live and die on generating quick, clean ruck ball.
While those suffocating qualities have proved kryptonite for the All Blacks, they crave a grand cathartic experience. What better craic than to dump Ireland out in another World Cup quarter-final - a pinnacle stage juncture they have never progressed beyond.
The All Blacks have played a pivotal role in building Ireland to the team they are today.
Ireland’s maiden victory over the All Blacks that halted their record 18-test unbeaten run, in Chicago, 2016, was the first step in genuinely believing they belong among the elite.
Ireland suffered setbacks since then - most notably their crushing 2019 World Cup quarter-final defeat to the All Blacks in Yokohama. Yet with four wins from their last six tests against the All Blacks since 2018, Ireland have had New Zealand’s number.
Ireland no longer fear the All Blacks. They fear no one.
Last year’s first series win in New Zealand, which culminated with successive victories in Dunedin and Wellington, was a seminal moment for Farrell’s team and, indeed, Irish rugby.
As their next glass ceiling approaches, Ireland will lean on those experiences to fuel inner belief.
For the All Blacks, that home series defeat sticks in the soul. It’s one thing to lose abroad, quite another to suffer on sacred home soil.
Two assistant coaches and several players were cast aside post that series defeat. The All Blacks who Ireland confront in Paris are undoubtedly a vastly different team, particularly up front where their set piece platform and maul defence have dramatically improved under Jason Ryan.
Last year’s visible scars that formed the backbone of the All Blacks in-house documentary remain, though. Beauden Barrett left the cliques at the door to lay bare that lingering hurt.
“We learnt a lot during that series. It was a challenging time - some of the most challenging times we’ve faced as an All Blacks team, and personally, losing a series in our backyard,” Barrett said. “We know the beast Ireland are and if you allow them to dictate up front and play the way they want, they’re a tough team to stop.
“If it’s Ireland in the quarter-finals, it’s going to be great because there’s a lot of us who are pretty keen to get one up on them and are still hurting from what happened last year.
“We’re not looking past this quarter-final. It’s our final. If it’s against Ireland, the No 1 team, then that’s exactly how we want it.”
Viewing Ireland as the their final details the All Blacks’ swift mental shift from the pool phase.
The All Blacks are, generally, at their best when seriously challenged. They know how to rise for an occasion. They need genuine edge to conjure compelling performances.
Recent history and form dictate Ireland evokes those essential ingredients.
Ireland holds the mantle as the All Blacks’ conquerors and World Cup favourites. They, therefore, demand the utmost respect.
Overcoming the new standard-bearers won’t be easy but to be the best, you must beat the best.
Armed with last year’s adversity and the knowledge there are no second chances, the All Blacks will seek launch that potent quarter-final cocktail.
“The All Blacks were the benchmark for a long time so to come up short in your home country it was more than a kick in the guts,” Coles said. “Every time you lose in the All Blacks jersey it leaves a scar so we had to look at ourselves and try get back to the top. They’ve been the benchmark for a few years now so you want to play the best teams. There’s no shying away from that it’s a Rugby World Cup.”