Why the Kiwis can win...and why they might not

The Kiwis are looking to be the first side to win three straight against Australia since 1953. Photo / Mark Mitchell

League reporter Michael Burgess explains how a new belief and focus, the Brisbane factor and a rampaging pack could prove the difference tonight in the Anzac test.

Why the Kiwis can win

1. New belief
The 2014 Four Nations changed the game. While the Kiwis over the last four years have always believed they could beat Australia, now they know they can. Before last October only a handful of players had been on the winning side in a trans tasman match; now most of the New Zealand players who walk out tonight can make that claim. That is vital in sport at this level.

2. Focus
Although they haven't talked about it much, this Kiwis team realise tonight is a great opportunity to snap their long losing streak (13) in Anzac test matches. They have a settled line up while Australia, like last year, will introduce several new faces.

3. Brisbane factor
The Queensland capital has been a fruitful venue for the Kiwis, with 35 per cent of their victories over Australia since 1971 being achieved there. In contrast the New Zealand side have only managed one win in more than 50 years in Sydney. Suncorp Stadium (and formerly Lang Park) has been the site of many memorable Kiwis moment - why not tonight?

4. Forward battle
The weather will turn tonight's match into a forward battle, where the Kiwis have a definite edge. Simply put, if the New Zealand pack plays to their potential, the Australians will find it hard to stop their momentum. It doesn't make for a guaranteed victory but is a big step in the right direction.

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
The Roosters fullback adds some real flair to the Kiwis attack. The wet conditions will negate his running game somewhat but he will still be a threat from inside the Kangaroos 22. The 21-year-old has scored seven tries in eight tests.

And why they might not...

1. Australian fear
Beware the wounded Kangaroos. Australian players and staff have emphasised the importance of bouncing back all week, and talked about how painful the Four Nations defeat was. The 17 players don't want to become the first Australian side to lose three consecutive trans-tasman matches since 1953. The home side also don't play another match this year, so don't want to stew on a defeat until 2016. The Australian newspaper's back page headline on Friday - "Kangaroos' reputation on the line" summed up the prevailing feeling on this side of the Tasman.

2. Cameron Smith
The Australian captain is still the most influential player in the sport and a brilliant wet weather footballer. He can control a match like few others. Smith becomes just the sixth player to captain Australia in 20 test matches (the others are Darren Lockyer, Clive Churchill, Brad Fittler, Wally Lewis and Mal Meninga) and won't want that important milestone to be ruined. There will also be some personal revenge on his mind; before last year's Four Nations he had never lost a test as skipper.

3. Return of Jonathan Thurston
The master play maker is back. As one Kiwi player said to me this week, "we try not to think about `JT' too much, if we did we probably wouldn't sleep that well". Of all the Kangaroos missing last October and November, his absence was the most lamented as Daly Cherry-Evans and Cooper Cronk couldn't provide the same impact.

4. Questions over Kiwis back line
While the Kiwis forward pack will match up well, there are some concerns about the back division. Shaun Johnson has been struggling for form and Kieran Foran has barely played recently. Jason Nightingale is also carrying an injury and Peta Hiku has limited experience at centre. The New Zealand are also missing Dean Whare, who is one of their best defenders. And Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, for all his ability, has only played nine games at fullback.

5. No neutral referee
Unlike the two clashes in last year's Four Nations, this match will be decided by an Australian referee as Gerard Sutton will take control of the match. No one can question Sutton's impartiality, but he will control the game using NRL interpretations which has historically suited the Australians.