Sam Tomkin's predatory instinct should add a new dimension to the Warriors' attack.
Sam Tomkin's predatory instinct should add a new dimension to the Warriors' attack.
Making predictions about a Warriors season is always fraught. Michael Burgess polishes the crystal ball.
Reasons why the Warriors will make the playoffs
1 - Depth
The Warriors have more depth now in key positions than at many other times in their history. They have genuine options in the halves, hooker and at fullback. They also have an impressive front-row rotation and plenty of alternatives in the back-row. Wing is also well covered with centre perhaps the only area of concern.
Don't expect Tomkins to instantly transplant his remarkable Wigan try-scoring record to Australasia; NRL defences are too smart for that. However, the 24-year-old brings a busy aspect to the No1 jersey that hasn't been evident at Mt Smart since Wade McKinnon. In the manner of Billy Slater, when a Warriors forward breaks or bends the defensive line this season, Tomkins will be on his shoulder. His predatory instinct should add a new dimension to the Warriors' attack. He is also a genuine extra play-making option.
3 - Forward starch
Jayson Bukuya will help to offset the loss of Elijah Taylor and Todd Lowrie won't be particularly missed. The Lousi brothers are back in the fold, while big things are expected of Suaia Matagi and Charlie Gubb in their second seasons. Feleti Mateo is overdue to recapture his form of 2011.
There are undesirable aspects to the 2014 schedule (the Warriors play just once at Mt Smart in their first 12 matches) but there are also some heartening elements. For a team that traditionally hit form in the second half of the season, playing eight of their last 13 matches at Mt Smart will help. They only face last year's big guns (Roosters, Sea Eagles, Storm, Rabbitohs) once after playing each of the quartet home and away last year and the traditional nightmare trips to 'unlucky' grounds like Leichhardt Oval and WIN Stadium in Wollongong are not on the agenda in 2014. They also have, on paper, a soft start to the year, facing the worst three teams from 2013 (Eels, Dragons, Tigers) within the first month.
5 - Ummm, they have to. . .
Desperation will hopefully breed ... desperation. They haven't been in the finals since 2011 and it is almost two years since the infamous press conference with Owen Glenn and Eric Watson, which generated hyperbole about becoming the "best sporting franchise in Australasia". Since that time, their win-loss ratio has been well below 50 per cent.
Image 1 of 10: Warrior Carlos Tuimavave heads to the try line after breaking the Cowboys defence line during the Auckland Nines. Photo / Greg Bowker
Reasons why the Warriors won't make the playoffs
1 - Mental fragility
Whether real or not, there is still a perception among opposition teams that the Warriors can be fragile; exert enough pressure and they will crack. Some mental demons still plagued the team in 2013. Putting all other mitigating factors aside, it is the only way to understand why the Warriors lost the way they did in the crucial end-of-season matches against the Panthers, Sharks and Dragons when on the brink of making the play-offs. For all the resilience they exhibited in the middle of the season, bouncing back after a club record 56-point defeat at Penrith, that disappointing finale showed that the absolute hatred of losing - a quality of all champion teams - was still not ingrained in the Mt Smart DNA.
2 - Eden Park
From a one-off match in the last few seasons, there will be a trio of games at Eden Park this year. It might make commercial sense, but it is also a three-fold increase in footballing risk. The team gives up two games at their Mt Smart fortress, where they were so successful last year. With play-off places often decided on the finest of margins, continuing failure at Eden Park could be the tipping point.
3 - Opposition on the improve
It's not easy to see who the Warriors could replace in the top eight, as many teams look considerably stronger than last season. Perhaps the Cowboys and Sharks could slip down a notch but the Bulldogs, Panthers, Titans and Raiders will all be strong contenders in 2014. You can never write off the Broncos and even the Tigers and Dragons will be improved units in 2014.
He is a doubtful starter to the season and any recurrence of his current groin injury would be highly damaging to the Warriors' prospects. Leuluai, who played every minute of every game last season, was a vital part of their mid-season revival and one of their most consistent performers. As well as being a key part of the halves, this season he is expected to see game time at hooker.
