NRL: Win first step as Warriors retain hope

Jacob Lillyman is not offloading a set of excuses but says there would be a few worried teams if they made the playoffs. Photo / Getty Images

The Dragons must be beaten tomorrow then have two out of three results go right

The Warriors are holding on to the belief that while there's life there's hope.

It's what they have to do or they are in danger of being beaten by a dreadful Dragons outfit who have lost nine of their last 10, including their last six.

The Warriors, who sit 10th, need a lot of cards to fall their way if they are to make the top eight. First, they have to beat the Dragons in Wollongong tomorrow and then hope two out of three results go their way - the Storm beat the Titans, the Wests Tigers beat the Cowboys and the Eels beat the Knights.

The good thing is they can at least put pressure on the other three sides jostling for the last two places in the playoffs, given their game is first this weekend. They can then sit back and watch events unfold.

Some players will follow the other games avidly. Others will go out of their way to avoid them.

Captain Simon Mannering falls into the second group. He remembers 2010, when they qualified fifth but were beaten by the Titans in the first game of the playoffs and then watched other results go against them to drop out of the finals.

"I remember watching one of those games and it wasn't much fun," Mannering said. "The more I watch, the worse things seem to go. I don't know if it's just better to see the result at the end."

Chances are the Warriors will miss out on the top eight and they will have only themselves to blame. They beat three of the top four teams this season, and pushed the fourth, and have won nine of their last 13.

Coach Matt Elliott did the sums this week and worked out they are sitting fourth in the second half of the season. It's hard to forget, however, that they won only two of their first 10 games and were 13th at the halfway point.

They lost too many games they should have won - they led six consecutive games heading into the final 12 minutes but won only two of them - and were unbelievably flat against the Sharks and Panthers last month when they had everything to play for.

"If we bow out it will be a hollow feeling because we know we can knock the top teams off," said prop Jacob Lillyman, who tomorrow will become the 22nd individual to play 100 games for the Warriors. "If we made the finals I know we would give it an almighty shake and there would be a few teams who would be worried about playing us."

It wasn't the case earlier in the season and they extended their record losing streak to 11 games (eight in 2012, three in 2013). There seemed to be some progress as they went close on a number of occasions but it unravelled in the 6-62 defeat to the Panthers, which spawned anger and disappointment in equal measure from fans and saw Elliott's position come under scrutiny.

It was the turning point and events changed so dramatically it seemed a place in the playoffs was a certainty as they won five in a row and seven out of eight.

"We took a long time to click," Lillyman said. "There was a lot of change.

"A lot was new this year and, without wanting to use excuses, it just took time. There were a lot of games in the first half of the year that were there for the taking and we didn't capitalise. There were a lot of valuable lessons learned and we would love to still apply them this year but, if that's not the case, then use them next year."

A win tomorrow will achieve a season record of 12 wins and 12 defeats but it would mean the Warriors' season has been as mediocre as that record suggests. The NRL operates a generous playoffs system with half the teams making the playoffs.

The Warriors haven't won in Wollongong since 1996 and have never beaten the Dragons at the venue but Lillyman puts this down to a statistical anomaly more than anything.

"It's not intimidating in any way, it's just a place we haven't had any luck," he said. "It's not like a Brookvale [Oval] or that type of place. It's a massive game for us and also the Dragons, saying goodbye to a few players. Hopefully we can spoil the party."

Sadly, the Warriors' own party will probably fall a little flat.

Where it went wrong

Warriors 14 Sharks 18
Round 21

The Warriors went into this match having won seven of their last eight and played as if they assumed another win was guaranteed. They lacked intensity yet still had a chance to win the game when Shaun Johnson broke clear in the final stages only for his final pass to go over the sideline.

Warriors 24 Panthers 28
Round 23

Penrith smacked the Warriors 62-6 earlier in the season and that should have been enough motivation for Matt Elliott's side. They looked on course when they raced out to a 12-0 lead inside 10 minutes but then inexplicably eased off and let an average Panthers side claim the win.

Set of Six

For six consecutive games the Warriors led heading into the final 12 minutes but they won only two of those. They could have beaten the Rabbitohs (22-24) and Storm (18-28) and should have beaten the Raiders (16-20) and Bulldogs (16-24). One more win would see them ensconced in the top eight.