If you thought this season was good for the Warriors - wait until next year.
That seems to be the sentiment floating around the Mt Smart club, with unbridled optimism for the future after what looked like a transformational campaign.
It’s not a new feeling. For a good portion of their existence - and especially in the post-Ivan Cleary era - it’s been a common refrain.
During most seasons since the 2011 grand final, the Warriors have been characterised as a “next year” club. A good pre-season, a couple of signings, maybe a new coach and everything would be okay. It was typical for most NRL clubs - but was saddled on the Warriors most heavily - and the El Dorado season never really came, aside from 2018.
However, the signs are good for 2024. It won’t be easy to improve on this campaign, as the Warriors have only reached back-to back-preliminary finals once in their 28-year history (2002-2003) and their 16-8 regular season record was only one short of matching the best tally in the club’s history.
But something is happening at Mt Smart and it won’t be undone easily. After tasting success, the club are determined to stay at that altitude and there are strong foundations in place.
Andrew Webster
The 41-year-old is the most important piece of the puzzle. It’s easy to overlook but the preliminary final was only his 30th match as an NRL head coach. Craig Bellamy has more than 550 behind him, Ivan Cleary 424. Kevin Walters is a relative rookie (75 NRL games) but also has two Super League seasons to fall back on, along with four years as Queensland State of Origin coach. On that basis, Webster’s capacity to improve and grow is massive.
Settled squad
The 2023 squad was a new team, with eight recruits, many of whom became regulars in the 17, along with some big departures. Their combinations and cohesion were impressive off the back of one pre-season - imagine what can be achieved with another one. And unlike other top teams, the Warriors aren’t losing key men to other clubs. That may not be the case in 12 months, with a lot of contracts up for renewal, but it’s a good situation now, as Bayley Sironen and Viliami Vailea are the only notable departures.
The Tuivasa-Sheck effect
For most of his last Warriors stint, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was the right guy at the wrong time, as his talent and capacity to make a difference was diluted by shortcomings around him. His return in 2024 is timely, giving the Warriors a different option out wide. He could be used with a roving commission on attack - similar to Joseph Manu at the Roosters - but should add plenty of punch. The 30-year-old will also drive standards even higher, though he is smart enough not to disrupt the chemistry already created this season.
Chanel Harris-Tavita is also a judicious re-signing, though he will be given time to settle after his year away.
Adjusting the recipe
The Warriors found themselves in 2023. They know what works - on both sides of the ball - so it is about adjusting and fine-tuning the recipe. Shaun Johnson will be a year older but can be influential again, as they expand their attacking repertoire. The defensive solidity was the most impressive aspect (third-best defence in the regular season), though there is always room to get better.
The Warriors tribe
The fanbase fell in love with the Warriors again this year, along with a whole lot of new followers, driven by the results and the snowballing Up the Wahs movement. That’s created a momentum that is self-fulfilling, as bumper crowds make the team even more difficult to beat at home.
Situation vacant
The Warriors need to find another prop option. Whether it is homegrown - or recruited - there is an over-reliance on Addin Fonua-Blake for forward grunt. He was spectacular this season, with huge minutes and metres as he only missed one match, but he will need more support for the team to reach their potential.
North Queensland provide warning
The Cowboys were the darlings of the NRL last season, catapulting from second-last in 2021 to third on the ladder. They reached the preliminary final, with Todd Payten awarded coach of the year. But they couldn’t back it up this year, undermined by a poor start and finished 11th, as they struggled to deal with new expectations.
A ‘kind draw’ again?
The NRL draw is a random beast - as you only face half the teams twice - and it bounced in the Warriors’ favour in 2023. They played Penrith, Brisbane and Melbourne just once, while the skew of home games in July and August helped with momentum. The Warriors also made their own luck, crucially winning all three matches before their byes and becoming a formidable team on the road.
Edging the injury lottery
On the one hand the Warriors had an awful run with injuries this year, as Webster didn’t have his best 17 available until the second week of the finals. Conversely, they avoided major injuries to the big five (Shaun Johnson, Tohu Harris, Addin Fonua-Blake, Wayde Egan and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad), which was vital.
Conclusion
All the signs point to more success in 2024. It won’t be easy and not everything will go to script (as it sometimes felt this year, from the number of clutch wins to the timely arrival of Johnson’s second baby) but this Warriors team won’t be a one hit wonder. There is a gulf to be bridged with Penrith, Brisbane and to a lesser extent Melbourne, but the Auckland club are starting from a considerably higher place than other rivals.
Michael Burgess has been a sports journalist since 2005, winning several national awards and covering Olympics, Fifa World Cups and America’s Cup campaigns. He has also reported on the Warriors and NRL for more than a decade.
On the surface, the Warriors draw for the 2025 season is quite kind