NRL: Warriors season going by the bye

The Warriors will hope to come back refreshed. Photo / Getty Images

So, if you're a glass half-full person, you'll be looking forward to the Warriors coming off the bye this week.

If you're a glass half-empty type, however, you'll be thinking the Warriors' season is approaching a real watershed.

It is anyway - the next three matches, against the Titans, the Broncos and the Bulldogs will almost certainly see their season consigned either to the boulevard of broken dreams or an avenue of hope.

Taking on those kind of tough clubs after a break is popularly assumed to be more than a bit of a mountain climb.

"Coming off the bye" is supposed to be a talent at which most NRL teams are not skilled. The commonly accepted rule of thumb is that most sides struggle - and the Warriors more than most - and only a handful have a better-than-50-per-cent record when returning to the hurly-burly of the NRL after a break.

But the statistics do not bear that out, generally or even where the Warriors are concerned. True enough, the Warriors lie a lowly 13th out of 16 NRL teams if you take in the win-loss record of NRL teams after the bye over the last six years (2004-2009).

In that time, they have recorded only three wins in the nine matches after taking the bye, for a 33.3 per cent win-loss record.

Only the Sharks, the Raiders and the Knights (with a terrible 22 per cent win/loss record) have fared worse.

However, in the last two years, the Warriors have fared rather better at bye time.

In 2007, they beat South Sydney 18-16 at Telstra - and anyone who points out that win prefaced their infamous six-in-a-row losses is obviously a fully paid member of the glass-half-empty club.

They lost 46-22 to the Panthers after their first bye last year(and then went on to lose four out of the next five matches).

But, at roughly the same time last year, they bounced back from the bye to beat the Cowboys 24-14, heading them into wins over the Bulldogs and the Storm and key victories over the Broncos and the Sharks as they made their fast-finishing run into the playoffs.

It's a moot point whether the Warriors are in the same form and frame of mind as this time last year but the fact remains: two of their three wins after a bye have occurred in the past two years, with only one win off the bye in the previous four years; a 66 per cent record over 2007-2008.

That - if you can take such heart from mere statistics - suggests they have some hope, even given the quality of their opponents and the fact that previous years off the bye seem to have sparked an ongoing losing run.

Apart from Brent Tate, they once again have a full playing roster available and uninjured. They will also have taken confidence in the 13-0 win over the Knights at a wet Mt Smart last week.

However, they could have wished for better opponents off the bye.

The Titans rank second in NRL statistics for wins off the bye - with a 75 per cent win-loss record in the four years they have been around.

Only the Storm has a better record, having lost only 1 of their last 10 matches following the bye; a remarkable 90 per cent record.

The Titans are also on a break this week and, the last time the Warriors went to Skilled Park, they finished up losing 34-26.

They are also in good company next weekend - the other teams coming off the bye are the Knights, the Eels (a 60 per cent record), Souths (50 per cent), and the Dragons (only 44.4 per cent). It would help the Warriors if the first three found their glasses half-empty.