NRL: Finals countdown reveals many scenarios

The Warriors are safe in the top eight. Photo / Getty Images

The Warriors seem most likely to meet the Titans, Tigers or Panthers when they play their first NRL qualifying final in two weeks.

Plenty of situations are still possible but some firmer options are emerging. St George-Illawarra are still favourites to take out the minor premiership. That would mean the Warriors will not meet them in the first week of finals.

With 30 points and a points differential of 39 after Friday's 36-4 win over Brisbane, the Warriors cannot finish any lower than seventh, save for one outlandish scoring scenario.

Consulting a super-computer could probably produce scenarios where the Warriors finish in the top four and host a qualifying final. However, the far greater likelihood is that they will finish seventh, sixth or - with results going their way - fifth.

That would mean an away meeting with the teams likely to finish second, third and fourth, which are most likely Gold Coast, Wests and Penrith, although not necessarily in that order. The Warriors have only beaten one of those sides this season. They defeated hosts Penrith 12-6 in the fourth victory of their five-match winning run between rounds 14 and 19 - which provided vital momentum for a push at the finals.

Playing Penrith is maybe the Warriors' best hope of surviving the first week, although the chances are they could still be alive with a loss. That will only happen if they are in sixth place or higher and the two bottom-ranked teams fold in their respective qualifying finals under the McIntyre system.

The Panthers have suffered an identity crisis of late, losing five of their last seven games. However, they did come back strongly last week with a 54-18 win against South Sydney. They face Canterbury tomorrow night to finish round 25. Forgetting the strife of a 40-12 loss to the Panthers in round six, the Warriors gritted their way to that 12-6 round 18 win over the same opposition - which bodes well for a mental edge. Penrith's attack could not penetrate in a 0-0 second half which saw the Warriors make 59 tackles within their own 20-metre line compared to Penrith's eight.

Wests Tigers proved a different proposition, handing the Warriors their heaviest defeat of the season - 50-6 at Campbelltown in round 12. They scored eight tries in the final 43 minutes of the match.

While the likes of hooker Robbie Farah, five-eighth Benji Marshall and resurgent fullback Wade McKinnon - recruited from the Warriors mid-season - are a dangerous proposition, the Warriors were close to the peak of their injury woes at that point.

Before Friday night, it was the last game Micheal Luck had missed and Brett Seymour went off 10 minutes into the second half as the Warriors produced a dire defensive display, missing 45 tackles. They would fancy a better chance of revenge now.

Perhaps the least palatable of the potential opposition is Gold Coast. The Warriors have lost their last five games against them, including home and away this season. The Titans have notched five straight wins before the start of round 25.

Finals foes

* Warriors results versus likely finals opponents, during the regular season:
* vs Gold Coast (away), Round 1, lost 18-24.
* vs Penrith (home), Round 6, lost 12-40.
* vs Wests Tigers (away), Round 12, lost 6-50.
* vs Penrith (away), Round 18, won 12-6.
* vs Gold Coast (home), Round 21, lost 20-28.