It's a bit like rain at Mt Smart Stadium in winter, Todd Carney getting into trouble and Manu Vatuvei getting injured - it happens every year.
Ivan Cleary is in his sixth year as Warriors coach and has already waded into round six of the sack-Ivan-debate. It's come a little earlier than past seasons but a disappointing two-win, four-loss record precipitates that.
Does that make Cleary a good coach because he has survived the regular calls for his head? Or does that mean he's got his shortcomings because he gets into this position every year?
Cleary is not an inexperienced coach any more. He's been in charge for 131 games across nearly six seasons for 63 wins, 65 losses and three draws. Only Tim Sheens, Craig Bellamy and Des Hasler have been in their current positions longer than the 40-year-old.
His winning record of 48 per cent ranks him 10th among active NRL coaches and is comparable to the likes of Sheens (50.5 per cent), who has won four premierships, and Brian Smith (52 per cent), who has been a top-level coach since 1984. Cleary has also taken the Warriors to the playoffs three times in the last four years.
But Warriors fans want more. They want a first NRL title. Many aren't convinced Cleary can deliver it. It's why they hoped the Warriors would throw the chequebook at Wayne Bennett when he announced he would be leaving the Dragons.
The disturbing thing for Cleary is that a genuine alternative sits waiting for a chance - a departure from the past when realistic options were in short supply. Brian McClennan has returned to New Zealand after three successful seasons with Leeds and is currently working as an Auckland Rugby League development officer. It's a waste of his talents and the former Kiwis coach has talked about wanting to test himself in the NRL.
He's well liked by both players and the public, meaning it would be a public relations success, but it would also mean a major shift in direction at Mt Smart Stadium. One thing the club have built themselves around in recent times is stability and Cleary is contracted until the end of 2012. It's been suggested the club's owners are running out of patience but that is merely conjecture and Cleary has a number of avowed supporters at Warriors HQ.
One is executive director of football and former All Blacks coach John Hart, who has mentored Cleary since his arrival in 2005.
"He's already successful and that's the problem in this industry, this game," Hart says. "This competition is the most difficult professional competition in the world. It has horrific demands, physically and mentally, and I think we totally underestimate how difficult it is to regularly be a finals contender. There are very few sides who have regularly been in the finals.
"I think we measure too hard. Our aim is to win the competition but we are also realistic about how difficult that is. What we have to do is grow and build the franchise on a long-term basis and that means we have to commit to development and grow our own people.
"I understand, having been through coaching, the pressures coaches are under. "People want success. Christ, last year we won Club of the Year. We were first when you combine the under-20s and NRL side. What is success? It's not just winning the championship. That comes along every now and then."
Cleary is said to be a methodical and hard-working coach. He does plenty of work analysing both his own players and those on opposing teams and is said to be well liked in the dressing room. He also keeps his emotions in check, unlike a Bellamy or a Smith, but there are some who believe he needs to be more emotional, more passionate, less conservative. He's shades of grey when he needs to be more black and white.
Many coaches use fear as a useful tool to get the best out of players but it's not something Cleary tends to employ. Former captain Steve Price once said he wanted Cleary to rip into the players more and Phil Gould wrote Cleary was the sort of guy "you would let marry your daughter. I don't think I've ever heard him raise his voice in anger."
Hart agrees this is not Cleary's style but that he has taken on a "harder edge" in 2011. An example of that was the dropping of Lance Hohaia, Joel Moon and Brett Seymour after three-straight defeats to open the season.
"The fear factor, I think he has shown his hand this year," Hart says. "If you're not in form, you're not going to be picked. The players understand that."
Players are the ones who will ultimately decide a coach's fate. The board might make the decision but it's what happens on the field - what the players achieve - that counts the most.
The Warriors might have made the playoffs three of the last four seasons but they have been erratic. Under Cleary, they have finished 10th, fourth, eighth, 14th and fifth and they went into this weekend's round of matches in 11th.
It's a common position for them early in the season. They have traditionally struggled in the early rounds under Cleary's watch and have had to rely on a good second-half of the season to make the top eight.
He hasn't been helped by injuries to key players like Manu Vatuvei and Jerome Ropati (last season it was Vatuvei and Steve Price) - plus the absence of a dominant playmaker. It was hoped Feleti Mateo would provide the impetus this season but he's so far been inconsistent and the club have pinned their hopes on hooker Nathan Friend driving the team from next season.
Laurie Daley is very much in the "pick and stick" camp and believes the continued focus on Cleary is intensified because the Warriors are a one-team, one-town club.
"I'm all for stability because it gives everyone peace of mind," the former Australian five-eighth says. "I would hate to see the club dictated to by fans and media. If you believe in someone, then you have to see it through. The last thing you want to do is turn your place into a basket case. If it's not working, then you have a decision to make.
"I think he's done a good job but I would like to see the club go to a new level. If he continues to do what he's doing and the players believe in it, they will turn things around."
The Warriors are following the Broncos template of success - the Bennett one, not the Ivan Henjak one. It's about loyalty and development from within.
The Broncos, though, won their first title in Bennett's fifth season with the club. By the time he left at the end of 2008, he had delivered six premierships and 17-straight finals appearances. Doubts about Cleary will remain until he wins a premiership or at least comes close. Sadly, it doesn't look like it will be 2011.
WINNING RECORDS
* Anthony Griffin: 83 per cent
* Craig Bellamy: 66 per cent
* Wayne Bennett: 64 per cent
* Kevin Moore: 57 per cent
* Des Hasler: 56 per cent
* John Lang: 56 per cent
* Brian Smith: 52 per cent
* John Cartwright: 52 per cent
* Tim Sheens: 51 per cent
* Ivan Cleary: 48 per cent
* Shane Flanagan: 46 per cent
* Rick Stone: 46 per cent
* Matt Elliott: 46 per cent
* David Furner: 43 per cent
* Neil Henry: 41 per cent
* Stephen Kearney: 33 per cent
WARRIORS COACHES WINNING PERCENTAGE
* John Monie (1995-1997) 50 per cent
* Frank Endacott (1997-1998) 39 per cent
* Mark Graham (1999-2000) 36 per cent
* Daniel Anderson (2001-2004) 55 per cent
* Tony Kemp (2004-2005) 35 per cent
* Ivan Cleary (2006-) 48 per cent
THE CLEARY YEARS
* 2006: 10th(four points deducted for salary cap breach)
* 2007: 4th
* 2008: 8th(preliminary final)
* 2009: 14th
* 2010: 5th
NRL: Coaching debate starts up on cue
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