Perhaps predictions can work in reverse. Last season the Warriors were rated as third-favourites for the NRL title and finished third last.
This time around the bookies have listed them as second-favourites for the wooden spoon ...
Ivan Cleary certainly hopes so, although he would like them to go one better than this formula would suggest.
There's little doubt the Warriors coach is under pressure. He would say he's always under pressure - that's the nature of coaching - but he's not likely to be given much leeway. He's no longer the new boy.
He might still be only 38 (he turns 39 tomorrow) but he's heading into his fifth season in charge of the Warriors, and only Tim Sheens (Wests Tigers), Craig Bellamy (Storm) and Des Hasler (Manly) have been in their current positions longer.
It would not have gone unnoticed that Steve Price was replaced as captain after five seasons largely because he hadn't delivered an inaugural title to Mt Smart Stadium.
The argument was that he had been captain for one-third of the club's history so it was time now to give someone else a go.
Cleary commands support from the most important place, the club's owner Eric Watson and board, but rarely has he enjoyed prolonged periods of unconditional backing from the fans.
"I don't know if it's about proving anything in particular," Cleary says in his typically calm voice, "but without doubt it's a big year for me. I feel I have learned more in 12 months than I have in all of my coaching career before that put together.
"I feel like, in fact I'm absolutely certain, I'm a better coach than when we almost made the grand final [in 2008]. For that to come out, the team has to go well.
"I'm really confident at this stage. All I'm really worried about is making sure each player plays as close to his potential as possible because, if you look back, the most disappointing thing for me last year was that we didn't have enough guys playing as well as they can. As a coach, that's how you get measured.
"I'm pretty determined to make sure those guys play well this year."
It's why the club have made significant changes. Things clearly weren't working on a number of levels and it didn't take an exhaustive review to illustrate that.
There had been plenty of time to mull over the Warriors' shortcomings as the season limped to an end so there was little in the review Cleary didn't know.
There is a new captain and game plan and pre-season training has returned to more old-school values of running, and plenty of it, to get the players aerobically fitter. But the most visible changes have happened among the backroom staff.
Tony Iro has taken over as Cleary's assistant, replacing John Ackland, who has swapped with Iro and is in charge of the under-20s.
Dean Bell has been appointed recruitment manager, Wayne Scurrah has taken on a more over-arching role as chief executive, Ruben Wiki has been brought in to help with the players' fitness training, Jerry Seuseu has been appointed welfare and education manager and Daryl Halligan has returned as goalkicking coach.
Ultimately, though, the team's success comes back to Cleary - that's how it works in professional sport - and he knows it. It's been a rollercoaster ride over the last four years but he's ready to step on it once again.
"I don't think that ever changes, really," he says. "It's always going to be that way. I'm not talking about season to season, it's week to week. I'm getting on again and enjoying the ride, hopefully. I will try to control things the best I can.
"Whether we have a better team or not ... I'm pretty confident we will play better. It's just a feeling, really. We have trained better and got things working better. I am really confident about the season."
They will go into their first game against the Titans on the Gold Coast on March 14 on the back of some decent pre-season form. They easily accounted for both the Roosters (26-8) and Cowboys (28-6) before rounding out their campaign with a 16-16 draw with Manly at North Harbour yesterday.
Defence has clearly been good and it's hoped that can continue into the season proper but it's on attack where improvements need to be made the most.
They scored just 357 points last season, the worst of the 16 teams, and Iro has been charged with helping turn this around. Structured freedom is perhaps the best way to describe this season's approach.
"A lot of it is perception but guys are playing differently and we are definitely looking to throw the ball around a bit more," Cleary says.
"I don't think it's traditional. I think it's more up with the modern style of football and what we think you need to do to be successful.
"You need to move the football around consistently. We hope to do that in a structured way. It's about providing as many options as you can as often as you can but in a structured way."
Cleary promoted attacking football last year, more than looked obvious, but the players' skill level fell away as the losses mounted, which meant they didn't have the confidence to let the ball go as freely.
A lot of the responsibility for this will fall on the halves. Brett Seymour will start at halfback but it's not yet clear who will wear the No 6 jersey.
Cleary doesn't know yet, either - not that he's letting on - with Joel Moon, Shaun Johnson and James Maloney all fighting for it.
Seymour is being painted as the great white hope to solve an area that has been a problem for years. But even more significant is the fact players will come in fresh and with few expectations.
Only three Warriors played in last October's Four Nations and the club weren't unhappy to see many key players - Price, Manu Vatuvei, Brent Tate, Jerome Ropati and Simon Mannering - left at home to recover from injuries.
"The biggest difference [to last season] is the preparation," Cleary says. "Last year came on the back of the World Cup and we had 11 blokes who played in that. The fact the Kiwis won, we thought we could really ride on the back of that. It was a fair feeling. But the guys were a bit stale.
"There was so much expectation around the team. At the time I didn't think it was a factor, but it was. We put too much emphasis on getting results early in the season, which was based on the years before when we had to come from behind [to make the playoffs].
"We got to halfway through last year but, deep down, I don't think the guys thought they could do it again."
They will have to believe this time around. There is a lot at stake. Not only do the aspirations of the players rest on it but so does the Warriors career of Ivan Cleary.
NRL: Cleary feels pressure to improve
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