KEY POINTS:
The equation through which the Warriors will make the play-offs is simple.
If they do not achieve victory this Sunday in Wollongong against an in-and-out Dragons side, they face the prospect of having to win against the Eels at Parramatta in the last game of the regular season.
That last game may turn out to be one the late-running Eels also need to win to earn sufficient points to make the top eight and, if so, the Warriors would be likely to be scorched off the paddock.
So they need to win in Wollongong, where they never have.
A look at the run-in shows the Warriors to be in with a good chance. If you assume the front-running Storm, Eagles, Sharks, Roosters and Broncos will keep the top five spots, there are eight teams chasing the three remaining playoff places.
Of those, the Panthers and Tigers will be lucky to win any of their remaining three; the Knights and Titans may win one; the Eels and Warriors should each win one and possibly two; the Raiders and Dragons who already lead that group of eight have the good fortune of the "easiest" run home - if anything in the NRL can be said to be easy.
Penrith will struggle to beat the top two, Melbourne and Manly, and come to Auckland between that, while the Tigers play two and three in Manly and Cronulla, then the Gold Coast away.
The Knights should beat the Cowboys at home but then host Melbourne and play away to Brisbane, while Gold Coast also have the tough ask of the Broncos then Manly away before they finish with Wests Tigers at Skilled Park. The Eels should beat the hapless Bulldogs next weekend, then have the Dragons away before finishing against the Warriors.
The Dragons host the Warriors then the Eels and finish with the Roosters away, while the Raiders should pick up one win from two away games against Souths then North Queensland and should beat the Bulldogs at home.
That scenario leaves the Warriors still hovering in competition for place eight with the Eels. Two wins from three would make a big difference, pushing them further up the ladder and away from a sudden-death match with the Storm in Melbourne.
Wade McKinnon was not charged after being put on report during the win over Cronulla so the team is the one that held the Sharks to four points and put on 18. Evarn Tuimavave and Sonny Fai have been added to a bench to be trimmed later in the week. The Dragons expect fullback Brett Morris and halfback Jamie Soward back from injury.
