Will the Warriors be celebrating a clinched finals spot after round 25? Photo / Getty Images
Will the Warriors be celebrating a clinched finals spot after round 25? Photo / Getty Images
After the Warriors slim victory over the St George Illawarra Dragons at the weekend, a comment posed to Simon Mannering in a post-match interview left many scratching their heads.
"With four rounds to go, you're in the finals."
After a short silence, Mannering wiped the puzzled look from his face and replied: "Are we?"
"Ah, you'll be close."
But how close are they really? Definitely not close enough to be guaranteeing them a spot in the finals four weeks out. This is a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2011 and as Mannering said: "You can never take anything for granted in this comp."
The equation can be quite simple though. With four rounds remaining in the competition, the Warriors are one of four teams fighting for three spots in the playoffs. To guarantee they're lining up in the opening week of the finals, they need to win three of their remaining games.
It's not a tough run home for the Warriors, with only one game remaining against a current top-eight team. In the next fortnight, the Kiwi side will meet the 11th-placed Newcastle Knights at home before travelling to Sydney to take on the 13th-placed Canterbury Bulldogs.
The Warriors are on the verge of securing their first finals berth since 2011. Photo / Getty Images
Their toughest remaining match comes in week 24 against the Penrith Panthers, before finishing against the Canberra Raiders. Both games will be in Auckland.
While the Warriors have not played either the Knights or Bulldogs this season, they'll be favoured to get the job done against both sides. The Panthers decimated them earlier in the year, taking a 36-4 win over the Warriors, and they came out on the right side on a 20-18 result against the Raiders.
However, should they fail to do win three of these four matches, then they begin to rely on the results of the Wests Tigers, Cronulla Sharks and Brisbane Broncos.
The Tigers trail the Warriors, Sharks and Broncos on the ladder by four points, which gives them more than half a chance of sneaking into the final playoff spot.
With an inferior points differential to the Sharks (+43) and Broncos (-6), the Warriors (-14) currently sit on the bubble in the eighth seed.
However, of the four teams, the Warriors have the second easiest run home. They'll only meet one team inside the top eight – the Panthers in round 24, as will the Sharks who meet the second-placed Storm this weekend.
The Tigers and Broncos have two more matches remaining against top-eight opponents, and will both play the first-place South Sydney Rabbitohs.
The run home: Warriors (currently 8th) – v Knights, at Bulldogs, v Panthers, v Raiders Sharks (6th) – at Storm, v Cowboys, v Knights, at Bulldogs Broncos (7th) – at Cowboys, v Rabbitohs, at Roosters, v Manly Tigers (9th) – at Raiders, v Dragons, v Sea Eagles, at Rabbitohs
