KEY POINTS:
The Warriors are up against it in Melbourne today. Lose and their season is over. Secretly, though, they fancy their chances against the minor premiers - more so than against the Sea Eagles.
They match up better against the Storm and some in Australia have called the Warriors the Storm's bogey, given they beat them in Auckland seven weeks ago and are one of only two sides to beat them in Melbourne over the past two years.
They also come into it on the back of some good form with eight wins in their past 10 games.
Key areas where the game will be won and lost:
1: Points scored
Storm 24.3 (3rd)
Warriors 20.9 (9th)
Of all the teams in the NRL you would choose to watch, the Storm aren't top of the list. They are relentless and clinical but not exactly pretty - although some of the things Greg Inglis, Israel Folau and Billy Slater do have to be seen to be believed. That's why they rank behind the free-scoring Sea Eagles and Raiders.
The number of points the Warriors have scored this season (502) is a fair reflection of their attacking prowess. They can be a bit hit-and-miss and can even appear a little bereft of ideas inside the opposition 20m. When they're on, though, they can be hard to stop and they do have Manu Vatuvei and Brent Tate.
2: Offloads
Warriors 12.5 (5th)
Storm 6.5 (16th)
The Warriors are often described as razzle-dazzle. They're not really. They occasionally like to throw the ball around but not like the minor premiership-winning side of 2002. They actually have a largely predictable game plan based on completing sets and field position.
The Storm rank last in this category, indicating they don't need to rely on this tactic. They score enough points out of linebreaks or kicks into the in-goal, or simply going over or around oppositions, without having to resort to offloads.
3: Points conceded
Storm 11.8 (1st)
Warriors 23.6 (11th)
This is what sets the Storm apart. They strangle the life out of the opposition - antagonists of the grapple tackle would argue they do this to opposition players - with their smothering defence and gang tackling. Their record of only 285 points conceded all season is significantly better than the next best team (Sea Eagles - 355 points). The 24 points they conceded against the Eels in round 16 was the most in any game this season - although Melbourne were missing nine players on Origin duty - and twice they have kept oppositions scoreless.
The Warriors, on the other hand, have had a season of contrasts defensively. They copped some dreadful hidings early in the season - 52-6 to Manly, 48-20 to Cowboys, 46-22 to Panthers - and it is for this reason that they have the worst differential of any side in the top eight.
But a feature of their recent good form has been strong defence. In their past 10 games, eight of which they have won, they are not far behind the Storm's match average having conceded 13.2 points a game. They were excellent in the 28-6 win over the Eels last week and will need to be equally tight to have any chance today.
4: Missed tackles
Storm 27.9 (1st)
Warriors 29.1 (2nd)
Both have workhorses: Dallas Johnson, Jeremy Smith, Michael Crocker, Ryan Hoffman and Cameron Smith at Melbourne; Micheal Luck, Simon Mannering, Ian Henderson, Nathan Fien and Logan Swann at the Warriors. They rarely miss tackles and no one from either side appears on the top 10 list of errant tacklers for 2008.
5: Odds
Storm $1.75 (1st)
Warriors $67 (8th)
Melbourne are hot favourites to retain the title they won last year while the Warriors are the rank outsiders. That might change significantly if they can somehow upset the Storm today. They would earn a home semifinal next weekend as one of the two winners involved in the second weeks of the playoffs (the two highest-ranked winners have the second weekend off). At Mt Smart Stadium they have a 9-3 record, which is equal to the second best in the competition.
The Storm have the best record at home (11-1), having lost at Olympic Park only twice in the past two years. Their last defeat there was against Cronulla in round two this year while the Warriors were the previous team to win there, 24-20 in 2006.
6: Coach rant-o-meter:
Craig Bellamy - 1st
Ivan Cleary - 15th
Craig Bellamy would rival any coach in any code when it comes to giving players the hairdryer treatment. You wouldn't want any young and impressionable children nearby when Bellamy gets into full swing. Storm hooker and skipper Cameron Smith admitted last year he calls Bellamy 'Dog Face' when the coach erupts. "When he really loses it, he almost can't breathe," Smith told the Sydney Morning Herald. "He starts spitting. He looks like a dog that's got rabies."
It's hard to identify a less demonstrative NRL coach than Ivan Cleary. It's not that he doesn't care, it's just going off on one is not really his style - certainly not in public, anyway. He's a clean-cut kind of guy and it's probably why he hasn't joined the players in growing beards in the latter half of the season (either that, or he can't grow one). Cleary is quiet, unassuming, a thinker and reliable - much like the way he used to play the game - and is highly rated in the club.
Key match-ups:
Hooker: Henderson vs Smith
Henderson is a self-confessed "grub" with his gritty style of play while Smith is the clean-cut high achiever (world player of the year, Dally M Player of the Year, two-time Queensland player of the year and three-time club player of the year).
Both have been in good form this season, Henderson with his darts out of dummy half and Smith with his all-round controlling game that has such a big bearing on the Storm's success. If the Warriors can somehow shut him down - the Sea Eagles tried to do this with a Steve Matai special on the rake early in their round 22 match - they might be a chance.
Fullback: Hohaia vs Slater
Slater would have been named Dally M Player of the Year ahead of Manly's Matt Orford last week had he not been docked a couple of points for being suspended earlier in the season. He is a dynamic and elusive runner (he is well ahead in kick return metres this season), good positionally and has also chimed in with 13 tries.
Hohaia is not a fullback. He made a good fist of the position this season with Wade McKinnon absent for most of the campaign with a knee injury but he is safe without being spectacular. He didn't let anyone down but doesn't provide the sort of spark or unpredictability McKinnon can in one of the most important positions on the park.
Wing: Vatuvei vs Turner
Melbourne stack up brilliantly across the park but this might be one contest the Warriors think they have a chance to dominate. Although Turner (right) is a proven performer and has scored 42 tries over the past three seasons, Vatuvei is in terrific form.
He is sixth on the season's top try-scoring list with 14 even though he has missed 11 games through injury and has dotted down five times in the past two weeks. His hat-trick last week demonstrated his potency in the air as well as his power close to the line. It's fair to assume most attacking bombs will go to Vatuvei's wing and at 1.89m and 112kg, he has a massive height and weight advantage over Turner (1.77m and 85kg).
