KEY POINTS:
The numbers look good. The Warriors have played South Sydney 17 times since the Auckland club came into the Aussie premiership in 1995 and they have won 14 of those games including every one played at Mt Smart.
Souths have won just once this season and are the only team of 16 with a worse points differential than the Warriors.
So defeat at Mt Smart tonight is well nigh unthinkable. Trouble is in the NRL if you go in thinking it's won and fail to front with intensity, the opposition will get up because, quite simply, no team is that bad.
Souths' problem has been in the halves where they have tried numerous combinations, discarding several players including Joe Williams who was released and Kiwis Jeremy Smith, sent to reserves, and Eddie Paea, now in the under 20s. Dean Widders has been discarded as five-eighth and replaced by John Sutton but he could not lift their game last week, a 26-12 loss to the Dragons.
Nigel Vagana has been discarded, George Ndaira sent to the bench and two rookies make their debut, Chris Sandow at halfback and Jamie Simpson at centre. Crucial positions where the Warriors will no doubt apply plenty of pressure.
The Warriors go in with the confidence of having won away for the first time in 2008, a grinding triumph in Newcastle that should instil confidence for this.
"Newcastle was an important win, a win built on determination and that's something we can build on," coach Ivan Cleary said. He was happy with the ball control and the goal-line defence. The effort there would be wasted if they do not go on and win.
The Warriors stick with Nathan Fien as their five-eighth after he had no trouble leading them around the field and produced an improved kicking game. And Patrick Ah Van stays at fullback after a solid display positionally and under the high ball, as well as taking a bomb to score a try and nailing the game-winning penalty. So that allows Lance Hohaia to come from the bench and run at the big Souths forwards as they tire, which they have done drastically throughout the season. One aim for the Warriors tonight is an improvement in line speed in defence, shutting down the Souths roll early. Stopping the Kiwis captain Roy Asotasi, who traditionally makes big metres early in their tackle counts, will be a big part of that as will good kick-chase to demoralise the opposition by keeping them pinned in their own territory.
The NRL judiciary has taken a player from each of the State of Origin teams after hearings in Sydney on Wednesday night. Eels wing Jarryd Hayne was refused a downgrading of the dangerous throw charge he faced and is banned for three weeks and Origin II next Wednesday, meaning he will not play prior to Origin III and so is doubtful for that game too.
The New South Wales selectors have Canberra centre Joel Monaghan on standby and yesterday brought Melbourne wing Steve Turner into their squad too because of concern over centre Mark Gasnier who has a hamstring strain. The final line-up is yet to be decided.
Queensland and Cowboys' Luke O'Donnell is out for seven weeks after the judiciary dismissed his claim that elbows to the throat were OK.
