The Dragons have a horrendous injury toll going into the game against the Warriors at Wollongong on Saturday evening, giving the visitors a better-than-even chance of a win.
The Warriors' all-up record against the merger club is not good - they have won just three of 10 games, and none of the wins have been at the Steelers' ground south of Sydney.
But they face a seriously depleted outfit this time - plus two players who will be asked to back up after featuring in the City-Country game in far-west Dubbo on Friday night.
Curiously, Wollongong Stadium was the scene of the worst defeat in the Warriors' 11-year history when Mark Graham's side gifted the Dragons a 54-0 result, despite the home side being short of eight regular first-graders. Hopefully that will be on the players' minds in the pre-game build-up.
If the Warriors lose this they lose touch with the leaders in the competition. Complacency should not be an issue, as it clearly was in 2000.
After having the bye in round nine and time to review the eight games so far, coach Ivan Cleary has made several changes.
Shifting Nathan Fien to hooker has long seemed a good idea. Grant Rovelli gets the halfback jersey after eight good games from the bench and proving himself at top level.
And giving Simon Mannering a go at centre also seems a good idea. He is big, strong and fast for his size and has a football brain. Mannering pushes Clinton Toopi to the bench. Cleary said Toopi, the Kiwis centre, needed to regain form, as did the national team lock Louis Anderson. He said Anderson was tired after continued commitment to the Kiwis and the Warriors.
For my money Anderson was one of the better players in the Kiwis. Toopi did not disgrace, though he had no highlights.
Big wing Manu Vatuvei is named on a five-man bench that includes relegated hooker George Gatis and Evarn Tuimavave, who is pushed back because Kiwis captain Ruben Wiki has recovered from the hamstring tear that kept him out of the test last Friday.
The Dragons have this week lost forward utility Ashton Sims, out for two months with a wrist break. Star centre Mark Gasnier is named but is in doubt after suffering a hip tear that forced him from the field when the Dragons lost to the Sharks last weekend.
Halfback Matthew Head has had knee surgery and is out for six weeks. Corey Payne (eye socket), Sam Isemonger (knee), Jason Ryles (hand) and Luke Bailey (knee and ribs) are not expected to be available for two weeks and wing Wes Naiqama (ankle) is ruled out for the season.
The Dragons blood their sixth debutant this season in backrower Danny Wicks, 20, the only change from the side that lost to Cronulla.
Warriors v Dragons, Sydney, Saturday 7.30pm
Warriors
Brent Webb
Todd Byrne
Tony Martin
Simon Mannering
Misi Taulapapa
Jerome Ropati
Grant Rovelli
Ruben Wiki
Nathan Fien
Steve Price (captain)
Awen Guttenbeil
Wairangi Koopu
Sione Faumuina
Dragons
Clint Greenshields
Colin Best
Mark Gasnier
Matt Cooper
Brett Morris
Trent Barrett (c)
Ben Hornby
Justin Poore
Aaron Gorrell
Michael Henderson
Ben Creagh
Dean Young
Shaun Timmins
Interchange:
Warriors: George Gatis, Evarn Tuimavave, Clinton Toopi, Michael Luck, Manu Vatuvei.
Dragons: (from) Danny Wicks, Matt Bickerstaff, Charlie Leaneo, George Ndaira, Lee Te Maari.
League: Dragons' horrific injury toll evens up Warriors' chances
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