League: Are the Warriors going to make the finals?

The Tigers are hovering if the Warriors slip up. Photo / Photosport

The most unpredictable team in New Zealand sport is heading for the promised land, with the Warriors about to qualify for the NRL finals for the first time since 2011. Or are they?

After a highly impressive first half of the season, they have plateaued recently, dropping four of their last five games, as fans and pundits get nervous.

How difficult is the run home? No game is easy at this stage of the season, but on paper it's a favourable draw. Three of their five remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and they only face one top eight side away from home (Dragons) today in Wollongong at WIN Stadium.

Can the Warriors finish in the top four?Theoretically, yes. If they win all of their remaining games, that would probably seal a top four place and a double life in the finals. Five victories would take them to 34 points, which has been enough for fourth spot in six of the last eight years in the NRL.

How can the Warriors ensure a home playoff game in the first week of the finals?They would need to finish fifth or sixth, requiring at least four wins.

What is required to seal a long awaited finals berth?To make sure, the Warriors will need to win three of their remaining games, as 30 points has historically sealed a top eight spot. Twenty-eight points may also be enough, but the Tigers are hovering.

Who can push the Warriors out of the eight?The Tigers (20 points), Raiders (18) and Knights (18) are the other teams in the frame. However, Canberra's hopes look remote, as they face tough trips to Penrith and Auckland as well as home matches against the Roosters and Rabbitohs. The Knights draw is similarly daunting, with consecutive away games against Cronulla, Penrith and the Warriors. The Tigers have a more favourable run, facing only two top eight teams, but their surprise loss to the Bulldogs last week damaged their prospects.

What are the different scenarios for the Warriors?Best case scenario: 4th (five wins).

Worst case scenario: 9th (zero-two wins).

Most likely scenario: 7th/8th (three wins).

What has happened in the home stretch of previous successful years?2001: In their first NRL finals season, the Warriors were impressive down the home stretch. They lost only one of their last six matches, and enjoyed emphatic wins over two top four teams (Bulldogs and Sharks). (8th).

2002: The Warriors won four of their last six games, including a pivotal home win over the Broncos. But they also slumped to a 44-0 defeat to the Roosters, who they met again in the grand final and were thumped. (1st).

2003: The Auckland club won four of their last five matches, including their final three on the trot to finish sixth. (6th).

2008: The Warriors won four of their last six matches, including back-to-back wins over the highly placed Sharks and the Broncos, to scrape into eighth place with 30 points. (8th).

2011: The Warriors had a 60 per cent record in the final quarter of the season, with wins over the Raiders, Knights, Sharks and Cowboys balanced out by narrow losses to the Broncos and Dragons, to finish sixth. (6th).