A poor completion rate is at the root of their troubles - but Cleary's men must not play it safe
After the first five weeks of the NRL, the Warriors were sitting pretty. They were playing well and getting the results. But the last two weeks they have been thrashed.
Why?
Well, last week's game can partially be explained by running into a star-studded Melbourne Storm side at the worst possible time. The Storm's motivation levels were up 10, maybe 20 per cent, so it was always going to be a huge ask.
But the Warriors just rolled over. As soon as things started going against them, they just opened the gates and said "come on through". It was ugly. Real ugly.
They couldn't use any such excuse against Penrith at home a week earlier, when they also shipped 40 points.
The problem is pretty obvious - a terrible completion rate. Dropped balls. Penalties. In this game you can't afford to play like that. If you look at the stats, in all of the games the Warriors have lost, they have lost the completion rate.
That flows on to the metres gained on the ground and kicking metres. Everything suffers when you don't finish your sets.
The Warriors lost both games in the first 20 minutes. When you're turning over the ball as much as they are it affects your whole game.
The likes of Penrith and Melbourne come at you so quickly and in numbers. They ask questions of the defence all the time.
You end up just back-pedalling and there is no energy left in the tank when you do get the ball back. Against Melbourne there was nothing in attack.
If you cough up the ball like the Warriors have been, you are going to get hammered, I don't care who you are.
The question is why? Why such a sudden, dramatic change?
I believe morale has slowly been affected by the loss of so many injured players for such an extended period.
Manu Vatuvei was one of the first to drop out, and when you lose players like that it eventually affects morale, it plays with your head a bit.
Over time, it affects the team's cohesion and structure. It slowly gets worse and, eventually, the rot sets in.
I have been in situations like that as a player, when the loss of one or more key players wears down a team. It happens. I can't think of any other reason why individuals start dropping the ball like the Warriors have been at the start of games.
The question now is whether they revert to a safety-first game. Obviously better ball control is needed but, when you play safe. But that would do the Warriors no good at all.
They need to find a balance between playing safe and making sure they still promote the ball. It really is a fine line.
It all comes down to looking after the pill. If the Warriors can do that then they'll have the energy to put some plays on and execute on attack. It's a simple formula.
Tomorrow's game against the Raiders is huge. If the Warriors lose, their confidence will drop even further. But with some key players back after the bye week a win would get them heading back in the right direction again at just the right time.
It won't take long to see how they are going to go. Canberra always start quickly. They are a very dangerous, exciting side. They promote the ball and really do you test you.
The Warriors must start well - and start their sets well. Lance Hohaia heading back to fullback should help. Lance is the sort of player who can provide the attacking flair to kickstart their sets and get the side on a good roll.
If they start their sets well then hopefully it will flow on to the rest of their game. If they don't, then we've all seen what can happen.
* I'm not picking any real bolters for the Kiwis. There are just too many good players around at the moment.
There may be a question over whether Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has played enough matches to get match fitness under his belt, and on current form Jerome Ropati could also struggle to get back in. But everyone else is playing well so picking the side should be simple.
