KEY POINTS:
If you considered the Warriors line-up pre-season it looked good. Plenty of ground-gaining through Steve Price and Ruben Wiki, solid workhorses in the second row, attack from the back with Wade McKinnon and the expectation Brent Tate would add another dimension in midfield.
A top-four finish was on
the cards, particularly after the big turnaround in 2007 when six consecutive losses were followed by a run of wins that led to fourth place and two playoff games.
That potential was halved, if not gone, 17 minutes into game one of 2008 when Price left Olympic Park in Melbourne with a torn hamstring, star No 1 Wade McKinnon having already been sidelined for months after tearing his knee in a warm-up trial.
When you looked at the Warriors draw pre-season they were always going to lose that game in Melbourne and the one two weeks later to the Eagles in Manly. But they leaked so many points in those two games - 84 to just 24 scored - that they have sat at or near the bottom of the "points differential" column ever since.
Key frailties remain which will hamper their prospects of progressing beyond round one of the finals series, should they make it after this weekend's round.
The defensive failings early were down to both a lack of leadership without Price and McKinnon there marshalling the troops. There was also a lack of that crucial do-or-die and "do it for your mates" attitude. That has been shored up.
The attack has been better with Nathan Fien at half and with go-forward from the pack, Michael Witt's kicking game has helped them play at the right end of the field. But the kicking game still lacks real menace, accuracy and variation. It doesn't scare the opposition, that's for sure.
And Witt is far less effective when he doesn't enjoy lots of space, which he won't against either Manly or Melbourne in round one of the finals series. They still need a settled halves combination, one which threatens with line-breaking ability, try-assist ability and most of all through field kicking ability.
The Warriors still fail to win games they should in Australia, not least to lowly South Sydney just four weeks ago. Beat Souths then and we wouldn't be talking about points differential now. Beat them at Mt Smart and in Sydney and the Warriors would now be aiming at fourth spot, instead of calculating mathematical chances.
If the Broncos beat the Knights in Brisbane tonight, as they should, then the Warriors will know their season-ending equation as they run out on the Parramatta turf - win and they make the finals series and get another game next weekend, lose and their "Mad Monday" on the turps arrives in three days.
As far as personnel goes they have not had the spectacular failures of some other clubs but nor have they had the spectacular unearthing of talent, with the exception of Ben Matulino.
Wing Michael Crockett has been punted both because of the depth in the position and the off-field drama that led to arrest on a sexual assault charge, centre Ryan Shortland, who was signed as back-up for the year, performed well when required.
Nathan Fien may not see out the last year on his contract if he gets a better offer and the club would not be sorry if Grant Rovelli and Epalahame Lauaki who are playing for the Auckland Vulcans sought release to go elsewhere.
The departures, including those of Wairangi Koopu, Logan Swann and Ruben Wiki, have freed up significant cash to buy in established Broncos backs Joel Moon and Denan Kemp, Storm five-eighth Liam Foran plus Cowboys backrower Jacob Lillyman as well as upgrade the contracts of the likes of Matulino and other youngsters pushing up from under-20s.
Moon and Kemp bring pace and utility value in the backs, though the former has his eyes on five-eighth, while Foran offers a long field-kicking game and Lillyman brings big defence and an off-loading ability.
With the addition of a halfback that other teams rate highly enough to focus on in their defensive planning, the Warriors will present as a decently balanced squad going into next season.
That was the case when Stacey Jones ran the game but most of that time there were major deficiencies around him, allowing opponents to put undue pressure on the Little General's game. Imagine how much better he would have been with a Darren Lockyer or Brad Fittler outside him.
If they find another halfback like Jones - and these do not grow on trees - it may be the first time since the single start-up year in 1995 when they have had a threat in all of the recognised attack positions, the one, six, seven and nine jerseys.
