State of Origin: It all seems too easy for big Mal

Queensland coach Mal Meninga. Photo / Getty Images

At face value it should be one of the most one-sided State of Origins in the rugby league series' 30-year history.

Queensland will swagger onto Melbourne's Etihad Stadium tomorrow (10pm kickoff NZT) bidding for an unprecedented four consecutive series wins, and the bookmakers agree by installing them clear-cut favourites.

It's hardly rocket science. The maroons boast the entire Kangaroos' backline who tore the Kiwis apart 38-10 a month ago, and the test front row of Cameron Smith, Warriors captain Steve Price and fellow ageless prop Petero Civoniceva.

Against them for New South Wales are seven Origin debutants including relative no-names James McManus, Michael Jennings, Michael Weyman and Justin Poore, all aged under 25 and pitched into the biggest games of their careers for the Baby Blues.

In the halves, matchwinners Johnathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer will guide Queensland against NSW duo Peter Wallace and Terry Campese - nephew of Wallabies legend David Campese.

In TAB Sportsbet's market for man-of-the-match, the four most favoured are all wearing maroon: Thurston ($5), fullback Billy Slater ($7), Lockyer ($8) and centre Greg Inglis ($9).

They've had an incident-free buildup, while the Kurt Gidley-captained NSW lost test forwards Glenn Stewart (suspended) and Paul Gallen (shoulder), replaced by Penrith's Luke Lewis and Gold Coast's Anthony Laffranchi.

But as seasoned followers of league's most intense rivalry will attest, it doesn't always go to script.

In 1995, unheralded coach Paul Vautin took over a Queensland team of no-names and against all predictions, they whitewashed the blues 3-0.

Then in 2006, Queensland coach Mal Meninga grabbed the reins with 10 Origin rookies as NSW chased the record of four straight series wins.

NSW were within touching distance after a Brett Finch field goal clinched victory in game one, before Lockyer inspired a 30-6 thrashing in Brisbane, then Warriors centre Brent Tate was named man-of-the-match in Queensland's 16-14 win in the decider in Melbourne. Tomorrow will be the first Origin in Australian Football League (AFL) heartland since.

Meninga didn't even try to claim underdog status and said his side were deserved favourites, but that counted for little.

"Origin footy's not about talent or the skill level, it's about who wants to win the game more," Meninga said.

"It's between the ears that really matters at this type of level. They (NSW) are going to be committed between the ears they don't want to be the first team to lose four in a row. " Canny coach Craig Bellamy knows how to get a team firing, having guided Melbourne to three consecutive grand finals. Instead of basing his side at their regular Coogee Beach hotel in Sydney, he whisked them to a plush retreat in country Victoria for some bonding.

"I couldn't be happier with the training we've put in," he said.

Experts hailed the NSW selectors punting on the likes of Penrith speedster Jennings and Newcastle's McManus: "It's the first team they've picked on form for years," remarked one commentator.

Pre-match chatter was at a minimum, with the only barbs coming from maroons centre Justin Hodges who put the heat on his opposite Jennings: "It's his first Origin so obviously he is going to be a little bit scared of the occasion."

Both teams took to Melbourne's Federation Square yesterday but only a handful of diehard supporters wearing maroon or blue turned out, showing AFL remained the only game in town.

Still, all general public seating was sold out and a crowd of 50,000-plus was expected at what was previously known as Docklands Stadium, before the series moves to Sydney for game two.

Queensland
Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Justin Hodges, Israel Folau, Darren Lockyer (captain), Johnathan Thurston, Steve Price, Cameron Smith, Petero Civoniceva, Ashley Harrison, Sam Thaiday, Dallas Johnson. Interchange: Karmichael Hunt, Ben Hannant, Nate Myles, Michael Crocker.

New South Wales
Kurt Gidley (captain), Jarryd Hayne, Jamie Lyon, Michael Jennings, James McManus, Terry Campese, Peter Wallace, Brent Kite, Robbie Farah, Luke Bailey, Ben Creagh, Luke O'Donnell, Anthony Laffranchi. Interchange: Craig Wing, Justin Poore, Luke Lewis, Michael Weyman.

Referees: Tony Archer, Shayne Hayne.

Odds (TAB Sportsbet Australia):
Queensland $1.50, NSW $2.50.

Last five series results:
2008: Queensland 2-1.
2007: Queensland 2-1.
2006: Queensland 2-1.
2005: NSW 2-1.
2004: NSW 2-1.

- NZPA