Dejected Warriors players during their NRL defeat to the Raiders. Photosport
Dejected Warriors players during their NRL defeat to the Raiders. Photosport
Good news for Warriors fans; despite having lost more than 60 per cent of their matches this season, they're still a mathematical chance to make the playoffs.
But when you have to add the word mathematical into the sentence, it isn't exactly a reassuring sign. There's a good reason forthat, with the Warriors facing arguably to toughest run home of any team in the NRL.
With five rounds to go, the Warriors will need to win at least four of their matches to have a realistic chance to steal a spot in the top eight. But in those five matches, they meet five teams currently sitting inside the playoff spots.
While they've run teams close, the Warriors have beaten just one of the current teams in the top eight this year, with a 19-18 win over the Cronulla Sharks in Wellington a fortnight ago. They've met three of the four other teams they'll play in the run home already this season. In those three matches, they were outscored 120-48.
The Warriors are currently three points outside of the top eight, but the teams above them will have a much, much easier life in the coming weeks.
The eighth-placed Wests Tigers, ninth-placed Penrith Panthers and 11th-place Newcastle Knights only meet two top eight sides on the run home, while the 10th-placed Brisbane Broncos meet three.
The run home
Manly Sea Eagles (5) at Mt Smart Stadium Reverse fixture: Manly won 46-12 at Christchurch Stadium.
Manly fullback Tom Trbojevic had his way with the Warriors in round three. Photo / Photosport
Back in round three, Manly prop Martin Taupau and fullback Tom Trbojevic set the Warriors alight. Taupau provided a massive platform at the front with almost 200 running metres, and Trbojevic broke the line at will on his way to scoring a double. Manly appear to be at full strength again for the return trip and are beginning to peak at the right time of the competition.
The Warriors are yet to meet the Roosters in 2019, which is probably a good thing. In the past month, the Roosters are averaging 32 points per game while conceding just 12. The Warriors, on the other hand, are averaging 19 points while conceded 25 during the same period. Make of that what you may.
Cronulla Sharks (7) at PointsBet Stadium (aka Shark Park) Reverse fixture: Warriors won 19-18 at Westpac Stadium.
Blake Green kicked a field goal to beat the Sharks when the sides met in Wellington. Photo / Photosport
Like the Warriors, the Sharks have been a wildly inconsistent outfit this season with players coming in and out of the squad due to injuries and suspensions. Looking less than impressive the last time the sides met, the Sharks seem to have turned a corner in the last fortnight with back to back wins, including an impressive 15-point triumph over the South Sydney Rabbitohs last time out. If their stars get going, they're a hard team to stop.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (4) at Mt Smart Stadium Reverse fixture: Rabbitohs won 28-24 at Sunshine Coast Stadium.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been impressive all season for the Warriors. Photo / Photosport
See Cronulla Sharks. The Rabbitohs don't always show up to play, but when they do they're an impressive side. If Damian Cook is running out of dummy half with the likes of Cameron Murray and Cody Walker backing up on the inside, the Warriors defence is going to find itself under a lot of pressure. This match shapes up as a big test of the forwards' gas tanks.
Canberra Raiders (3) at GIO Stadium Reverse fixture: Canberra won 46-12 at Mt Smart Stadium.
Canberra's Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ran for more than 200m against the Warriors. Photo / Photosport
As we saw on Friday night, the Raiders are a tidy outfit. And on their home turf, they take things up a notch. Canberra has historically been a fortress for the Raiders and in 2019 that has been no different.
Warriors (12; 17 points): v Manly Sea Eagles (5), at Sydney Roosters (2), at Cronulla Sharks (7), v South Sydney Rabbitohs (4), at Canberra Raiders (3).
Cronulla Sharks (7; 20 points): at Penrith Panthers (9), v St George Illawarra Dragons (14), v Warriors, v Raiders, at Wests Tigers (8).
Wests Tigers (8; 20 points): at Canterbury Bulldogs (15), at Manly, v Newcastle Knights (11), at Dragons, v Sharks.
Penrith Panthers (9; 20 points): v Sharks, at Brisbane Broncos (10), at North Queensland Cowboys (13), at Roosters, v Knights.
Brisbane Broncos (10; 19 points): at Cowboys, v Panthers, v Rabbitohs, v Parramatta Eels (6), at Bulldogs.
Newcastle Knights (11; 18 points): at Eels, v Cowboys, at Tigers, v Titans, at Panthers.
North Queensland Cowboys (13; 16 points): v Broncos, at Knights, v Panthers, v Bulldogs, at Melbourne Storm (1).
