By PETER JESSUP
The Kangaroos could kick the Kiwis to death in the 100th test between the two rivals at North Harbour Stadium tonight.
If the Kiwis lie down like they did in July in Sydney, that's exactly what will happen.
In Brett Kimmorley, Craig Gower and Craig Wing, the Kangaroos boast three of the best field kickers in the National Rugby League and will make plenty of ground gain at Albany simply by reefing the ball deep into Kiwi territory.
Those shots have to be covered on the full, something Kiwi and Warrior teams have been less than adept at in recent times. Those three are all capable of producing a 40/20; no one in the Kiwi side could do that.
And if the big Kiwi forwards can't make carries that dent the Kangaroo line, can't produce off-loads and don't back up the ball-carrier then New Zealand are in deep trouble.
There is the prospect of the greater part of the game being played in black and white territory and, if that happens, it will only be a matter of time before the guile of Kimmorley, Gower and Wing and the speed runners from the back and the flanks - Darren Lockyer, Matt Sing and Anthony Minichiello - tear them to bits.
Any sign of fatigue on the part of the home side will be fatal, a wound to be attacked and ripped open.
And when it is, Australia have a choice of professional goal-kickers with a success rate in the 70 per cent range - New Zealand have a coin-toss between keen amateurs.
It could all be incredibly daunting but neither the Kiwis nor their coach were despondent this week.
Coach Daniel Anderson is relying on good form in the playoff series - only prop Nathan Cayless was not involved in that - plus some motivation from internal competition like that between the Cayless brothers and the Penrith second-rowers Joe Galuvao and Tony Puletua. There is the enthusiasm of new faces and the desire of the non-Panthers players to finish their season on a higher note.
The Kiwis concentrated on the kicking game and kick-chase for a time in their last two days' preparation. Anderson and former Kiwi five-eighth Tony Kemp wanted to instil some smart percentage thinking in rookie halfback Thomas Leuluai, who is charged with turning the ball back to the Aussies at the end of the Kiwi sets.
"He's got to rip in straight away. We want to give him some bases, some guidance about where to aim. Obviously he can't learn that in a few days," Anderson said.
Leuluai had been in the Warriors' development programme for nearly two years before his start in round 18, was a kicker at his club and had experience from three playoff games to provide some confidence, Anderson said.
The coach has also been working on getting quick play-the-ball.
The Kiwis rely on that to keep the opposition retreating, so they can push the defensive line out of shape and find holes. Their best hope lies right up the middle, with barging runs that attract multiple tacklers so that Leuluai and Nigel Vagana can pick up the off-loads at speed.
Leuluai is bound to be targeted by the runners off the Aussie ruck. If he falters, he'll keep getting belted. There is an option in bringing Motu Tony forward because others, including Henry Fa'afili and Clinton Toopi, can cover fullback. But that would be signalling defeat and would invite the bombing of the new number one.
Perhaps the biggest advantage the Australians have is knowing how to win. They are unlikely to fold no matter what pressure is applied. They are unlikely to play catch-up, pushing passes and taking risks. For the Kiwis, however, that has to be a part of their game if they are to win.
It will be a major boost to their self-confidence if they can score early and if the Aussies can be held out in the first quarter. If that is not the case, however, the Kangaroos could well go on to build a July-like score.
Both coaches looked relaxed this week in build-up. Chris Anderson, Kangaroos coach since 2000, enjoyed an eight-over round of golf at the Kauri Cliffs course.
He has suffered major heart trouble in recent years, faces the threat of being axed from his Sharks job, and goes into this tour of New Zealand, then England and France, without 16 first-choice players. Losses are not tolerated, he knows.
"I enjoy this," he said, "it's a great challenge."
Of his low-key approach: "New Zealand does this to me, it's a bit slower over here."
But composure came from success, he said.
Daniel Anderson, approaching test two without veterans Stacey Jones and Stephen Kearney, takes heart from the fact he has a different team from that beaten 48-6 in July.
"We're carrying better form, we're better prepared, we're faster. It's the last game of the year, there's a rest coming, I wouldn't expect them to leave anything out there and they're not going to want to play badly in front of a big home crowd."
But without experienced halves, without a specialist hooker or fullback and with no goal-kicker it is impossible to pick the Kiwis to win. Oddly, this is just the sort of time they get up and do it.
An overload of passion is their only chance.
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