By PETER JESSUP
The recent history of transtasman league tests will be repeated at Wellington's Cake Tin tonight, with the Kiwis' chances depending on a hard and fast start that brings a points break sufficient to counter late Australian tries.
The Kangaroos will score late because they are faster out wide, and gaps are sure to come as New Zealand's four-forward bench tires.
Rugby league is a simple game, coaches tell juniors, and it is the same for the Black Friday international: possession is everything, the side who drop most ball will lose.
The Kiwis cannot afford to tackle only for 60 minutes, as at the World Cup, or the same thing will happen as it did then: the sides were even until the three-quarter mark, after which the Australians ran away, 40-12.
New Zealand were too tired to do anything in the final stages.
They have to turn fearsome defence into attack, take strength from holding Australia and take the opposition's spirit.
The Kiwis have to do every little thing right, give Australia nothing other than intense heat.
Even Kangaroo captain Brad Fittler and the so-called world's best player, Andrew Johns, will make mistakes if put under more pressure than they are used to.
There are five new caps in the Kangaroos, in Broncos Dane Carlaw, Lote Tuqiri, Brad Meyers and Petero Civoniceva, and the Knights' Danny Buderus.
David Solomona is the only new Kiwi, though Warriors Monty Betham, Jerry SeuSeu, Clinton Toopi and Francis Meli have only the one test, against France in June, behind them.
Do the old team-sheets comparison - who from our team could make theirs? - and there are usually two Kiwis in and a third to argue about.
This time, the Kiwis could provide seven Kangaroos: they have arguably the two best props around in Nathan Cayless and Craig Smith, Steve Kearney is a world-class second rower, any team would have halves Robbie and Henry Paul and Stacey Jones, and Richard Swain is the NRL's top tackler.
Australia will simply be methodical, with hard yards from the props, quick play-the-balls, and Johns and Buderus running down the sides of the ruck to work the second rowers, Fittler and Trent Barrett.
The Johns-Buderus combination is a big threat.
New cap Buderus went into the Knights' development system at 16.
What he learned from there on - what Steve Walters taught him about dummy-half play after former coach Mal Reilly turned him from a halfback to a hooker in 1998, and what Warren Ryan taught him about defence - will all be on display tonight.
But Buderus credits Johns' selection at halfback as opening the hole for him. He was fourth halfback in line at the Knights before 1998, with Brett Kimmorley as well as Johns ahead of him.
Now Barrett's good form has pushed Fittler to lock, a position the skipper does not particularly like, and Kimmorley's poor form has left the halfback spot for Johns.
Buderus did not believe he was within a bull's roar of test selection and recognises that as both State of Origin rakes were overlooked, it was his work with Johns that lifted him.
He is expecting a physical game.
"The Warriors go hell for leather and this will be more so. We can't let them grow another leg - we have to snuff them out early," he said.
This test is more than a game for the new-look Kiwis.
The new caps, the new selection panel and the new coach, Gary Freeman, will all come under pressure if the unthinkable happens and there is a repeat of the 0-52 Anzac test thrashing last year, or the November World Cup result (Australia won 40-10).
Home-ground advantage will mean a lot.
It will be a pity if WestpacTrust Stadium is not full to its 34,500 capacity for the first test in Wellington since 1990, which New Zealand lost 6-24.
Around 23,000 tickets had sold by yesterday afternoon, but interest was increasing in the capital.
Rugby League: Fast start vital to Kiwi hopes
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