Rugby League: Best chance to sucker-punch Kangaroos

By PETER JESSUP in WELLINGTON

There is only one means by which New Zealand can assure themselves of victory over Australia in Wellington tonight - bash them.

Not the thuggery of old. Rather a controlled aggression which hurts, intimidates and forces the Aussies to take bad options.

The leaders, the key hitmen, have to be Ruben Wiki and Stephen Kearney who, aged 29 and 30 respectively, are approaching the end of test careers that have included more losses than they like to remember against the Australian Machine.

They won't go gun-shy as the Warriors did after Brad Fittler was smashed and bloodied by Richard Villasanti last weekend.

And they'll be looking to do that damage in the first 20 minutes, not the last.

In past games, the Kiwis have done the hard yards early, but slipped off the task late. Australia absorbed the punishment, then opened up to playmakers late in the game to run away from tiring defenders.

The idea has to be to punish those playmakers and to stick to the task for the full 80 minutes.

There are two big factors in New Zealand's favour this time: 10 players were involved in the grand final, as opposed to the Kangaroos' two, and performing at that level has the beaten finalists physically and mentally up for the test, and the rest lifted by that. Australia usually come into the test after a hard State of Origin series, but this time the Kiwis have had the harder build-up.

And for once there are no fill-ins, no players that are second-choice because of lack of depth. All of them have plenty of NRL experience and are up with the requirements of winning the arm-wrestle.

For the Australians, the pressure points are easy. Rookie five-eighth Lance Hohaia will have the big trucking rigs Shane Webcke and Gorden Tallis running at him all night.

Brett Kimmorley and Craig Wing will shower stand-in fullback David Vaealiki with high balls.

But it will come down to who wins up front. Paul "Bully" Rauhihi has to live up to that nickname and make an impact in the early exchanges, get dominance in the tackle, make ground and deny the Aussies any.

It was something the Warriors couldn't do last weekend. They failed to force any holes in the smothering Roosters' defence.

If the Kiwis can't punch holes early in the tackle count they will struggle for territory, kick from their own half and gradually be worn down with only one possible result - the wrong one.

The game is likely to be tight because each side respects the other.

Referee Bill Harrigan will want to keep the game as free-flowing as possible. His penalty average in big games is around eight and anything short of blatant violence or deliberate and obvious slow-the-game tactics will go largely unpunished.

In New Zealand's favour, Harrigan and Kangaroo captain Tallis are not the best of mates. Tallis frequently criticises Harrigan, on and off the field.

He took Harrigan apart for taking the Broncos out of the NRL finals with a 6-2 penalty count in their semifinal against the Roosters. Sixty-nine minutes of the game had gone before the Brisbane side received a penalty.

Australia will play the flat backline system that coach Chris Anderson prefers. It means that when they bust the line they will be hard to stop, especially if the ball receiver is Darren Lockyer coming at speed from the back.

But it also means a stifling defence can deny them any ground-gain and, with that achieved, Kimmorley's kicking game can be nullified by denying him time to think and act.

The wind, forecast for 35 knots but dropping, may play a big part tonight. The Cake Tin's swirls and eddies are becoming notorious and the kickers from both sides have had limited time to test them since training access was denied because of the preparations for last night's rugby match.

Again, if there is advantage, it's with the Kiwis because the eight Warriors and two Bulldogs in the side have played there for the past two seasons - Kimmorley never has.

There's no Andrew Johns, no Brad Fittler - the pair who have traditionally killed Kiwi hopes late in the big games.

This is as good a chance as the Kiwis are ever going to get to sucker-punch big brother.