NRL: There can be only one

Greg Inglis. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Michael Brown and Michael Burgess outline who they think will win the NRL premiership this year - and in a competition almost impossible to predict, try to answer eight big questions affecting those seeking a spot in the hallowed ground of the Top 8.

1 Winners?
While all 16 clubs will start with high hopes, four teams realistically stand out as prime contenders for the 2011 NRL premiership, while another quartet will be in the mix. St George-Illawarra will be favourites once again, with a team full of internationals and a hardened core of experience. Their long-awaited victory last year will actually remove some pressure.

There is less to prove in 2011 and the thought that Wayne Bennett may be gone in 2012 (to Brisbane or Souths) should galvanise the squad. The Dragons are beatable, but are masters at adjusting their game plan and tactics for each opponent.

It is notoriously hard to win the NRL back-to-back, and great teams such as Manly(1995-97), the Roosters (2002-04) and the Storm(2006-09) failed to defend their titles. The last coach to do so was Tim Sheens (Canberra 1990-91), apart from a certain W. Bennett who managed the feat with Brisbane twice (1992- 93 and 1997-98).

Having served their penance, Melbourne will be back among the front-runners this year. Greg Inglis is a huge loss but Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater remain, along with the meanest defensive pattern in the competition. They have been in the top two in terms of lowest points conceded for each of the last five seasons.

Tim Sheens, probably still having nightmares about that bungled scrum feed against the Roosters, knows there are great expectations of his Tigers this year. Don't bet against them, with a big pack and improved defence complementing the unequalled talent of Benji Marshall - though they will be vulnerable if injuries strike.

The Raiders have the knack of toppling the Dragons and 2010's big improvers could go one better this time round, as long as Matt Orford can offset the absence of Terry Campese.

The Roosters, Titans, Warriors and Bulldogs should round out the top eight but would be surprise champions.

Tip: Tigers.

2 Biggest fall?
After not making the top eight for five years, Penrith achieved beyond expectations in 2010, winning 15 games to finish second on the points table, topped only by St George. It is difficult to see a repeat of such joy in the Blue Mountains. In the second half of the season their attack had become predictable, with over half their tries scored from kicks. They paid the price with successive semifinal losses in September, though untimely injuries were also a factor. Despite some exciting backs, they still lack genuine quality in the halves and it would be no surprise to see the Panthers finish outside the finals.

Redfern is the other place where dreams could die hardest in 2011. Despite having the second best attacking stats in 2010, the Rabbitohs, thanks to a porous defence, could only finish ninth and it is hard to see them any higher this year.

Greg Inglis is an unbelievable talent, but how will he fit in at a club already stacked with egos? Souths seemed to lack those intangible factors of attitude and spirit last year, which (thankfully) remain something that money can't buy.

3 How will the Warriors go?
They should do pretty well. A top-four finish is a possibility and many across the Tasman are picking them as the dark horses of the competition. A lot will depend on injuries. Ivan Cleary has more depth at his disposal than at any time in his five-year tenure as coach - but he can't afford to be without key players, like the injury-prone Manu Vatuvei and indefatigable Micheal Luck.

They have lost some experience from 2010, with Steve Price, Brent Tate and Ian Henderson all departed, but have recruited well with Feleti Mateo, Krisnan Inu and Shaun Berrigan joining the fold. Mateo is perhaps the most important of the trio, the 25-year-old bringing a new dimension to the second-row or five-eighth.

There are a handful of top juniors coming onto the scene - the Junior Warriors won the NYC in 2010 - who will put pressure on some of the incumbents. It's just a case of whether Cleary is brave enough to use them.

4 Best buy?
If his name is anything to go by, Beau Champion looms as potentially the buy of the season. But the 24-year-old has so much more going for him. Champion swapped jerseys with Greg Inglis, moving to the Storm from South Sydney, and is a player of pace and strength - at a fraction of the cost of Inglis' reported $600,000-a-season deal.

He's quick and powerful and is a fringe representative. Already many Bunnies fans would rather have Champion than Inglis, who has reportedly turned up to Redfern out of shape.

Matt Orford will bring crucial experience to a Canberra Raiders side expected to shine, Feleti Mateo (Eels) is just what the Warriors need and Greg Eastwood (Leeds), Frank Pritchard (Penrith) and Aiden Tolman (Melbourne) will all strengthen the Bulldogs.

5 Biggest improvers?
If any team has defined yo-yo over the last decade it has been the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs.

From 2000, their finishing positions have been: 11th, 2nd, 15th, 3rd, 2nd, 12th, 2nd, 6th, 16th, 2nd, 13th.

But, apart from the statistical pattern, there are other good reasons why they are due to bounce back. They have beefed up their forward pack, with Kiwis Frank Pritchard and Greg Eastwood and Melbourne's Aiden Tolman sure to add some real starch. Brent Kimmorley is a loss, but Trent Hodkinson is ready to step into the breach. Ben Barba may finally deliver on his undoubted talent while Jamal Idris needs to recapture the form of 2009.

Look for the Bulldogs to reach the top eight, and maybe go beyond the first week of the finals.

6 New stars?
Look for two members of the Warriors' triumphant 2010 Toyota Cup side to make their mark this year, though unfortunately they are no longer at Mt Smart Stadium.

Big winger Elijah Niko, who has been compared to Manu Vatuvei, is sure to thrive under Craig Bellamy at the Storm. Newcastle have big hopes for barnstorming 22-yearold centre Siuatonga Likiliki, who was named in the Toyota Cup team of the year in 2009 and 2010.

The Knights have 20-year-old halfback Beau Henry, who has spent two seasons at Kogarah without getting a start but is said to be a real comer.

Canberra are a team on the rise and ex-Cronulla flyer Blake Ferguson, who represented the Indigenous All Stars in the recent festival match, should make the Raiders' right-wing spot his own.

Over at Parramatta Stadium, 18- year-old Jacob Loko is a raw talent, the blockbusting three-quarter impressing many with his pace and size in the trial against the Warriors in Rotorua. With the Eels' attacking options severely depleted, look for Stephen Kearney to unleash the 1.93m, 103kg giant at some point in the year.

Other players to keep an eye on include prop Mark Ioane (Canberra), halfback Liam Foran (Manly) and Israel Folau's younger brother Eni at the Tigers.

7 Which coach is under the most pressure?
One coach has already been ushered from the training ground with Ivan Henjak sacked as Brisbane coach before a ball had even been kicked.

With a swathe of good coaches on the market - Ricky Stuart, Michael Maguire, Mal Meninga, Daniel Anderson, Nathan Brown and Jason Taylor - others will inevitably follow.

North Queensland's Neil Henry is under the most pressure and one Australian newspaper said he had just six weeks to save his job.

The Cowboys were spared the wooden spoon last season only because of the Melbourne Storm's salary cap indiscretion, despite having a strong squad, and have added the likes of Brent Tate (injured), Dallas Johnson and Antonio Winterstein in 2011.

8 Was Melbourne's salary cap breach the rort to end all rorts?
Hardly. Last April, the NRL was rocked to its core with news the Melbourne Storm had been cheating on unprecedented levels by rorting the salary cap to the tune of $3.17 million over four years. They were stripped of the titles they won in 2007 and 2009 and banned from winning points in 2010.

If people think league has been cleaned up entirely because of the huge penalties imposed on Melbourne, they are sadly misguided.

There have been more than 75 official breaches of the cap since 2000. Most have been minor infringements but occasionally they have been serious violations (Bulldogs 2002, Warriors 2005, Storm 2010) and there will be more in the future.

Some clubs believe the crime is worth the risk and many get away with it; it's easy enough to hide payments.

It's implausible that some operate under the cap - a look at a team's top 25 roster, and the number of high paid 'stars' in each, is usually a good starting point. GETTY IMAGES