NRL: The next four matches are crucial

Greg Bird. Photo / Getty Images

NRL pundits talk about 30 points being the magic figure to get a team into the top eight, and the playoffs. That's pretty much been the watermark since 2007, when the competition extended to 16 teams.

So the Warriors need to win five of their last nine games to nab a spot. Coach Ivan Cleary said as much a fortnight ago when he mused that seven wins in the last 11 rounds should get them through.

Cleary is a realist who knows the team is unlikely to win all their matches. However, they have won the two games since, already easing their chances of progression.

The next four are key.

The Warriors face arguably the toughest schedule of the top eight teams. They meet the Panthers today, followed by the Storm, Rabbitohs and Titans.

The only one of those sides they have beaten so far this season was the Rabbitohs (26-24), in round 11. They had a close contest with the Titans (24-18) but got hammered by the Panthers (40-12) in round six, following by a 40-6 thrashing at the hands of a Storm side stung by the salary cap rort punishment.

None of those matches are easy prospects. It will also help put the recent wins against Newcastle, Parramatta and the Roosters into perspective. The Warriors have looked capable against the best in the competition, too, if the 22-20 loss to the Dragons is anyhting to judge by.

Other than Melbourne, each of the Warriors' opponents is in the top eight. The Storm would be too, with 22 points, if they had not been disqualified for salary cap breaches. The Titans have the next toughest run with three top-eight sides and ninth-placed Brisbane while the Panthers, Wests Tigers, Sea Eagles and Roosters face just one top eight team each.

WHO AND WHAT ARE THE WARRIORS UP AGAINST?

Penrith: The Warriors have to avoid getting monstered by their big forward pack early or being vulnerable to bombs - three came in that fashion last time. The Warriors went into halftime 22-0 down. Two tries after halftime couldn't turn it around. Matthew Elliott's side cemented a third straight win and rocketed into playoff contention. A Panthers win today will see them draw level with St George on 28 points, and all but guaranteed a play-off spot.

Melbourne: Any side with the likes of Cameron Smith, Billy Slater, Greg Inglis and Cooper Cronk is going to be tough to beat, regardless of the salary cap rort distraction. The Warriors took the brunt of that last time but the Storm's season could dim now State of Origin is over. That was arguably the motivation of the season for Melbourne's finest. Perhaps Four Nations selection also takes their fancy but, with three losses in the last four matches, the Warriors are poised to strike.

South Sydney: The Rabbitohs will miss the injured Issac Luke, a star out of dummy-half this year. But they are still blessed with attacking flair in the form of Nathan Merritt, Beau Champion and Rhys Wesser; players capable of creating line-breaks at will. Pinpoint kicking might also be worth practising - the Rabbitohs have conceded the second most tries in the competition from kicks.

Gold Coast: The Warriors will be hoping the first game of the season, where they held a 12-0 advantage before losing 24-18, doesn't come back to haunt them. Among the upcoming matches, this shapes as the one where the Warriors have the best chance of winning. It will be at home and the Titans have not looked invincible in recent outings - with four losses in the last six games.

Halfback and skipper Scott Prince has been out with injury but is now back. Greg Bird (pictured) had a howler in the opening match in his return to the NRL but has since rectified the situation and even earned a recall to the Blues for State of Origin. He is a danger, sharing directional responsibilities with Prince and seems to offload in the tackle at will.

Make or break

Next four matches for top eight sides - rounds 18-21.

(Top-eight opponents as at the start of round 18 in bold)

DRAGONS: Bye, Souths, Titans, Broncos

PANTHERS: Warriors, Eels, Storm, Cowboys

TIGERS: Titans, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Sharks

TITANS: Tigers, Broncos, Dragons, Warriors

SOUTHS: Roosters, Dragons, Warriors, Bulldogs

SEA EAGLES: Raiders, Sharks, Tigers, Knights

ROOSTERS: Rabbitohs, Bulldogs, Broncos, Eels

WARRIORS: Panthers, Storm, Rabbitohs, Titans