KEY POINTS:
In some games statistics mean little - in league they mean everything.
Sure, there are great breaks as well as small bits of magic that don't show after the number-crunching. But once you start to put the ruler over things, long-term the performers and non-performers and the reasons why become crystal-clear.
The clear recipe for winning in this year's NRL finals series is, most importantly, to do the least tackling and to concede fewer penalties.
In six games so far, the loser has done more tackling. The big losers - the Broncos (by 40), Souths (by 26) and the Warriors (by 37) - were on the end of huge tackle count imbalances.
The winner has won the penalty count in five of the six games, the one other near-even.
Possession is paramount, hold the ball will be the coaches' mantra this weekend.
The Cowboys are hard up against it in Sydney. Although they have a good record against Manly, winning five of the last six games between the sides including a 30-26 victory in Townsville this season, they have won just one of five in Sydney this year, against the Dragons in round three.
North Queensland's defence is second-worst in the competition and away from home they leak a huge 38 points average.
Manly's veteran backrower Steve Menzies will play after recovering from a virus. Glenn Stewart is expected to front despite an ankle problem but wing Chris Hicks is not, his ankle worse.
The Cowboys fullback Matt Bowen will play despite bruising a leg against the Warriors.
Manly's strength has been their defence, then ability to hit back once in possession.
They have players who are strong in traffic, Michael Monaghan and Anthony Watmough as well as Stewart.
With good go-forward, Matt Orford's kicking game will be more valuable to the Eagles than will be the shorter kicks Johnathan Thurston provides for the Cowboys.
The Warriors played away from their strengths in Townsville last weekend. Don't expect the Eagles to do the same.
They are now where the Warriors will be next season. They made the playoffs in 2006 and were eliminated in early rounds, have built on that experience and are now ready.
Parramatta haven't beaten the Storm since 2005 and the Melbourne club has won seven of the last eight encounters between the pair, 14-10 in round 23 this season in Melbourne.
And at the back ends of games, Melbourne are tough. They have conceded just one try in the last 20 minutes in their last 11 games - to the Roosters.
Both these teams will run out as named on Tuesday.
The Eels are good enough to push the Storm all the way.
But as with Manly, the Storm will have learned the bitter taste of being ousted just short following their loss to Brisbane in the grandfinal last season.
Their side is largely unchanged after that game - Scott Hill and David Kidwell who left the club and Adam Blair who is injured are the only ones not available on Sunday.
They have the game's best hooker in Cameron Smith. Halfback Cooper Cronk is a 40-20 expert.
Greg Inglis, Israel Folau and Billy Slater in the backs are freakish players who can break a game open.
The Eels also have backline freaks in Krisnan Inu, Jarryd Hayne and Timana Tahu.
But they may not receive the quality of service from the halves that the Storm should enjoy.
There is the feeling that Melbourne are on an unstoppable roll to the title, that the only team that can beat the Storm is the Storm, should they freeze.
Final Four
Sea Eagles v Cowboys
Sydney Football Stadium, 9.45pm tonight
Referee: Paul Simpkins.
Storm v Eels
Telstra Dome, Melbourne, 6pm tomorrow
Referee: Tony Archer.
Story So Far
Week One
Eels 12 Warriors 10
Penalties Eels 7-5,
Tackles 327-378
Cowboys 20 Bulldogs 18
Penalties 12-4
Tackles 262-282
Eagles 30 Rabbitohs 6
Penalties 6-7,
Tackles 251-334
Storm 40 Broncos 0
Penalties 7-4,
Tackles 291-380
Week Two
Eels 25 Bulldogs 6
Penalties 8-2
Tackles330-356
Cowboys 49 Warriors 12
Penalties 9-3
Tackles 191-315
