The Storm's survival in Melbourne depends on how long News Ltd wants to keep throwing money in.
The club celebrates its century of games in the city this weekend and it is a proud record: 67 wins and 33 losses. Yet after eight years of promotion of the game there, it has no base.
In a city and surrounds that include about 5 million people, there are fewer than 2500 league players. So the Storm will have to keep buying players from elsewhere well into the future.
This weekend something like 10,000 people will watch the Storm host the Warriors at a ground built for Australian Rules and track running - and that will be up on the Storm's average because of the expat Kiwi count.
By comparison, more like 70,000 are expected at the Melbourne Cricket Ground for the annual grudge match between Carlton and Collingwood, despite those teams being second- and third-last on the AFL competition ladder.
New Storm chief executive Brian Waldron, who took over from former Kangaroo John Ribot, came to the NRL after 15 years in the Melbourne AFL as chief executive of St Kilda, in management at Richmond and as a player manager.
St Kilda are the only one of the nine teams in Melbourne near the top of the table and six hog the bottom, but Waldron said he was happy with his move and that the Storm had a future in foreign territory.
He is banking on a Victorian state Government promise of A$100 million ($110 million) for a 20,000-seat stadium to be built next to Saturday night's venue, Olympic Park, in time for the 2008 season.
A club drive will seek to milk the local community, using stars such as Billy Slater to encourage more Melbourne youngsters to play league.
The Storm will run a local competition, provide help in schools and run a touch competition in summer to generate local interest, after years of plundering players from elsewhere - including New Zealand.
On their books with Kiwi second-rower David Kidwell and Glen Turner are former Warrior Jeremiah Pai, Wellington second-rower Sam Tagatese, 18, and Josh Tatupu, who has already represented Queensland juniors. They maintain a relationship with the Brisbane Norths club and send their back-up players there rather than run a reserve grade.
For News Ltd, much of the loss at the Storm will be academic because it will be balanced against money brought in from the TV time. But it costs about A$10 million minimum to run an NRL club and, as they say in business, the numbers do not stack up.
The Storm averaged 14,000 crowds in their best years, but despite winning the competition in 1999, crowds have declined steadily and they now average about 8500.
"Our crowds are poor relative to the market and that is one of the reasons we need to celebrate our milestones," said Waldron.
Among those drawn in to celebrity lunches this week are game greats Laurie Daley and Gorden Tallis, former coach Warren Ryan, Warriors skipper Steve Price, former Storm coach Chris Anderson and lock Tawera Nikau.
"I have faith we can grow the game here," Waldron said, borrowing from a Warriors slogan.
"News has been underwriting the club for a long period," he said, refusing to disclose exactly what was put in, "but the business signs are positive. We want to take it to the stage where Victorians own the team, not News Ltd."
It's fair to say they have a key in coach Craig Bellamy, who joined in 2003 in tumultuous circumstances after the acrimonious departure of title-winner Chris Anderson and then the failure of Mark Murray.
After finishing third in 1998, the Storm were first then sixth under Anderson, ninth in 2001 and knocked out of the playoffs thanks to a last-round loss to the Warriors, 10th in 2002 under Murray, then fifth and sixth under Bellamy.
"He's the best coach in the game," Waldron said, singing endorsement from a man with one year's experience in league. But a better gauge is Wayne Bennett's choice of his former protege at the Broncos as assistant at the Kangaroos.
The Storm were running hot until faltering in their last two games and their season now stands at 11-10.
Struggling for profile
* Melbourne Storm were born in 1998 out of the ARL/Super League merger.
* Constructed from players from Hunter Mariners, Perth Reds and South Queensland Crushers.
* 100 per cent News Ltd ownership.
* 100th home game this weekend v NZ Warriors
* Won 67, lost 33
* 1999 premiership winners: crowd average 14,000
* 2005 crowd average 8500
* AFL now in its 108th season
* 10 of 16 clubs in Victoria
* Nine in Melbourne
* Crowd average 25,000-plus at each of four/five games in the city each weekend
League: Storm clouds gathering in Melbourne
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