KEY POINTS:
In an unusual reversal of roles, the Australians have prepared for a tight forward battle in the centenary test in Wellington tomorrow while the Kiwis are planning to unleash the raw talent in their backline.
It is the Kiwis forwards that have the Kangaroos worried.
Australia will field
a pack that leans towards defence rather than attack: Nathan Hindmarsh, Ryan Hoffman, Dallas Johnson and bench man Michael Crocker are all known for workaholic tackle rates but less for their ability to break tackles and produce off-loads. Props Petero Civoniceva, Steve Price and Brent Kite are straight-ahead men.
By contrast, the Kiwis have forwards adept at a power attack mixed with shuffling footwork and off-loads and a short passing game based on back-up. If the Kiwis are to win, they will need to punch holes in the middle and use smart support play to take advantage, then work their desire to run the ball wide quickly.
The build-up to this test has been unusually quiet. Kangaroos coach Ricky Stuart has had little to say and new Kiwis coach Gary Kemble has clearly kept his comments to the New Zealanders, not wanting to give Stuart any ammunition.
The Aussies have repeatedly switched training venues and times; they changed their day off to train in private on Wednesday then skipped any public duties on Thursday. Media sessions have been cancelled or held 15 minutes after the Kiwis start theirs to halve the interest. Word has it that Stuart sends a spy to the Kiwis media calls so he can respond to anything said there.
From the sparse comment he has made this week, it's clear where Stuart sees the danger. "I want our four to take on Roy Asotasi and the other Kiwi props. The Kiwi props are big, powerful men and our guys will have to match and stop them. The conditions will be heavy and wet so whoever drives the game forward will dominate. I see front row as being a very important position in this game."
It means Stuart is nervous. He does not have the game-breakers of past Kangaroos sides: no Andrew Johns, Darren Lockyer, Johnathan Thurston, Alf Langer or Wally Lewis.
Like New Zealand, Australia field two new halves. Both sets, Kiwis Jeremy Smith and Ben Roberts and Kangaroos Cooper Cronk and Greg Bird, are sure to be targets. The Aussies have the attacking edge there, the Kiwis pair are the better defenders.
Both teams are sure to employ high, swirling bombs in the Wellington wind. It was such kicks that turned the Anzac test in May, Roberts losing the ball on the Kiwis line, and the NRL grand final, Manly fullback Brett Stewart KO'd and gifting a turnover when he took the ball and two tacklers at the same time.
"We expect lots of cross-field kicks to the wings," Kemble said. He has shifted Luke Covell to the right wing, rating the Sharks player's ability to cope on either side, whereas Taniela Tuiaki is a specialist left wing only.
Covell is extremely safe under kicks and a great positional player and defender but is also possibly the slowest flank man in the NRL so the Kangaroos are sure to try to get speeding teenager Jarryd Hayne outside him. On the other wing, the battle between the huge Israel Folau and the stockier Tuiaki promises plenty.
But it's the work done inside the flanks that is likely to determine this game. There, the Kangaroos have the world's best in Mark Gasnier and Greg Inglis, who turned the grand final the Storm's way.
Both are elusive runners with the strength to break tackles. They have safe hands, good football brains and take the right options in terms of off-loads and directing play wide or inside. Kemble is on to it.
"The challenge is there for Steve [Matai] and Whats [Paul Whatuira] and they've taken that up. They know they're up against the best and they're looking forward to it."
The Kiwis coach had been pleased with team preparation until their run on Thursday night, when the game-plan fell apart in an opposed run against the Junior Kiwis. He said the coaching staff were grumpy and had to take them back to the drawing board and out of their comfort zone.
"We have to be right on our game to be any chance."
Kemble said he expected a brutal confrontation up front early on. "We think we have the players to handle that and we're ready for it."
But they want to play an expansive game if conditions, the referee and the scoreline allow it.
"Once the game opens up, we'd like to think we can produce more threat inside their territory. We have a lot of exciting players in the backline."
Inglis said Stuart had told the young Kangaroos players to keep doing the things that worked for them in club football this season, not to change their game. But if the conditions were wet, the backs would have to go looking for ball.
English referee Steve Ganson will likely keep a big 10 metres, which may play against the Kiwis, but is also likely to tolerate a slower ball than do the NRL refs, which plays for them.
Traditionally, the Kiwis stay with the Australians for three-quarters of a test then get torn up by their little guys. But no Johns, no Lockyer, no Thurston - the New Zealanders will fancy their chances in this game.
The Junior Kiwis will field a team full of NRL experience in the curtainraiser against a Junior Kangaroos side just thrashed by Tonga.
Most experienced Kiwi is Warrior fullback Patrick Ah van with 27 games. Dragons centre Chase Stanley has 18 and Roosters wing Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Eddy Pettyborne and captain Eddie Paea from Souths were all regulars in the top side.
