Chris Rattue: Prediction for 2011 - no World Cup

Sonny Bill (left) will use his fight against Scott Lewis as rugby training. Photo / Getty Images

And so the countdown begins. Rugby, rugby, rugby. But before we get to THE World Cup, there's the matter of a few other World Cups and bits and bobs in between. With crystal ball in hand, over to the 2011 sporting year

10) We won't win cricket's World Cup
A big call, for sure. No one likes a spoil sport but unless John Wright is a miracle worker our mob have no show, and they've probably got no show anyway. Going by the latest selections, New Zealand will have youth on their side during the tournament in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh from February 20 to April 2. Most of the new Black Caps look like the types who still have Brendon McCullum posters on their wall. Nothing about this team should give us any confidence - the Black Caps may even have peaked too early against Pakistan this week.

Another prediction: Australia will not win their fourth consecutive World Cup and even if they did, their amazing run of 29 wins will come to an end. Our pick: India. As for terrorism and the Duckworth Lewis system - fingers crossed they won't figure. With a bit more luck, the final will be played in full light this time.

9) Sonny Bill Williams gets floored
The realists warned the David Tua-Shane Cameron fight promoters they had jumped the gun with their "Fight of the Century" claims in 2009. Less than two years on, the Tua-Cameron salesmen must eat their fight posters. Sonny Bill Williams versus Scott Lewis is the contest that will stop two nations this month.

SBDub is using this glittering occasion as rugby training, so look for nice cleanouts and even a couple of sidesteps. Lewis is a step up for SB, which isn't saying much. Not only did SBDub's previous opponents look as though they trained on rice puddings, one of them actually looked like a rice pudding. Anyone meeting Ryan Hogan wouldn't know whether to shake his hand or pour cream on top. Scott Lewis is a whole different ball game, though. Anyone who can access YouTube can witness Lewis tumbling over like a sack of spuds from the back of a truck recently, having copped a bit of a slap to his tummy. Lewis has glass ribs. But in elite boxing there's always that chance a lucky punch will change someone's life.

This is make or break for Lewis, his family and the proud suburb of his native Campbelltown, and also a chance for Australia to strike an early Rugby World Cup blow. In reality, SBDub is unlikely to get floored but this suggestion made a nice heading.

Our prediction: the ring announcer's suit will be a size too small. As for the big bout itself, Lewis will be toast on the Gold Coast with SB to do him in two.

8) A New Zealand team will win the Super Rugby
A New Zealand team will stop a Bulls three-peat. There you go, a big, bold prediction for the new 15-team Super Rugby, which starts February. But hang on - might this be bad for the All Blacks' World Cup chances? Winning the Super could fall into the category of ... (Jaws music) peaking too early! Scream, run from the beach, lock up your boats ... this is so confusing. Winning the Super Rugby would be "unpatriotic". The Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Highlanders know this and won't dare to win. Thanks, guys - you are true patriots. But those pesky Crusaders are selfish trophy-grabbers. They could wreck the campaign. Another prediction: there will be rest and rotation by stealth, and another name.

7) Tiger Woods won't win a major
There is only so much swing remodelling one career can take. Tiger could end up in Celebrity Swing Rehab.6) We won't win the women's soccer World CupTough, I know, but we don't pull any punches with our predictions. Our ladies just aren't good enough. Nobody will be, apart from the United States and hosts Germany. A highlight: our match against England in Dresden in early July. The Football Ferns aren't in a tough group and they could surprise against the soccer Motherland.

5) Ali Williams gets All Black recall
Dip your hand into the hat and pick out whatever World Cup story you like here. There will be plenty. The Williams' comeback should be high on the list. Two Achilles injuries, two years with virtually no football, more than two years since his last test - this represents a tall order.

At his best, though, Williams was a star and maybe the best lock in world rugby. The stocks aren't too bad in this department but Williams is a teacher's favourite. Stranger things have happened - the last World Cup, Keith Robinson and all that.

Our prediction: Just a couple of decent Super games will get Williams into the squad and a shot at the World Cup, but after so much time out he won't be the Ali of old.

4) Australia pip the Silver Ferns in the world netball championships
Don't they always? The Diamonds are forever the champions, apart from the odd occasion when we wreck their party. The 2010 Commonwealth Games thriller, won in double extra time by the Silver Ferns, has set up July's world title clash in Singapore nicely. Oops, did we fail to mention the other 14 teams?

Our apologies to Wales, Malaysia and company but they just don't count. This contest for world supremacy has always been a lopsided two-horse race. The litter-free capital of the world is an odd place to hold the world championships but, then again, Qatar is an even odder place to hold soccer's World Cup.

Come to think of it, how did Singapore, the world No19-ranked country, get the nod over Australia, which hasn't hosted the netball championships for 20 years? If this was soccer ... but conspiracy theories aren't allowed in netball.

The questions on everybody's lips: is Irene van Dyk losing her touch under the Aussie blowtorch? And if so, can Maria Tutaia come to the rescue again? Our prediction: Australia to win an extra time thriller - either that or New Zealand to win an extra time thriller.

3) A nobody like Andy Murray wins a Grand Slam title
A Hail Mary prediction that the combined forces of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer won't clean up in the big tennis tournaments yet again. Everybody in world tennis is a nobody compared with those two but the time is right for a rare victory by someone else.

The fascinating Nadal-Federer duel will still dominate and if Nadal gets on a roll he might get within lobbing distance of Federer's Grand Slam record. There should be at least one classic Grand Slam tournament final between these two remarkable players. A good way to prepare for their fabulous duels is to snooze during the women's final, which is easy to do.

2) The Warriors will win the NRL title
There you go - that will put the kiss of death on them. The last time we did this, in 2009, the only thing they threatened to win was the wooden spoon. If Ivan Cleary can get the best out of new recruit Feleti Mateo, anything is possible. There was a temptation to use this slot to predict more match-fixing scandals, with cricket, tennis and league among those dealing with depressing rumblings on this topic. But let's think happy holiday thoughts for a little longer.

1)The All Blacks won't win the World Cup
This raises the tricky question of who does win the Webb Ellis, but that's not the point. Picking the All Blacks to win the World Cup is regarded in many circles as a wicked plot by a snarling media to bring our brave lads down. Picking them to win is apparently a crime that ranks alongside peaking too early.

The All Blacks have been disasters in the professional era, failing to even make a World Cup final since the ruling classes decided that rugby players could enjoy the delights of paying taxes and have more time to play golf. Only a crazy fool would pick the All Blacks to win on past tournament form.

As a rugby nation we don't actually have a recipe for success but that doesn't stop us from trying to make new ones up. The key ingredient is a national mood of dire pessimism. The game plan goes like this - with long faces everywhere, Richie McCaw and the troops ride to the rescue after adopting full battle mode. In keeping with this well-grounded approach, we suggest the team's vital pre-tournament swimming mission be conducted from the Onehunga wharf. But even the spectre of the old Mangere bridge may not be enough to save them. Fate has decreed we are sport's most enduring chokers.

Our first prediction: the quarter-finals will involve Australia v Samoa, England v France, South Africa v Ireland and New Zealand v Argentina. France beat Australia and South Africa beat New Zealand in the semifinals.

The final prediction: South Africa beat France and Peter de Villiers makes a memorable speech (very confident about that one).