The NRL and Super 14 are a tipster's nightmare. There is one theory that an even competition is a good competition.
But there should be another, that these two football codes are lacking old-style glamour.
The supposed "upsets of rugby upsets" occurred in Bloemfontein yesterday morning, when the table-topping Sharks were obliterated by the cellar-dweller Cheetahs.
Such is the unpredictable nature of our top football competitions, that I reckon it is possible for a decent tipster to strike a weekend in which they get every result wrong in the NRL or Super 14.
The Cheetahs are an identity-challenged team with form which made you consider calling for the mercy rule.
Yet they not only beat the Sharks, they smashed them. The Sharks have lost just two games - to the two bottom teams (the Cheetahs and the Reds).
The crazy thing about the Sharks-Cheetahs match is that even in hindsight, it's hard to spot the usual indicators for a gigantic upset.
The Sharks have a stable lineup, and they were not having to play after a long flight back from Australasia.
At a pinch, you could have suggested that local derbies are more likely to produce strange results, that the Sharks were sapped by heavy defensive efforts and a physical match against the Hurricanes.
You might also have surmised that the Sharks were eyeing up a finishing stretch of four home games and took their eye off an away match against the lowly Cheetahs.
But a team ending a long losing streak by beating the series leaders 31-6? It makes the competition look flaky.
It only makes sense when you accept that the Super 14 squads are now very even, and that there is a fine line between success and failure. This is certainly the case in the NRL.
It is still early days in the long, tough league competition, but early-season predictions have been upended without a standout team emerging.
No sooner had Brisbane been tagged the team to beat after three rounds, and they were crushed at home by St George-Illawarra.
It wasn't too many weeks ago that 2008 champions Manly were being lauded as one of the great teams of all time by the Brits after Manly's world club challenge victory over Leeds. A couple of scandals later, and Manly are enduring a horror start to this season. Among the teams to beat them have been Penrith, initially the widespread favourites to finish last this season.
British league has a fight on its hands in a soccer-dominated land, so the odd superlative or two to explain a local loss comes in handy. Yet Manly's remarkable Grand Final victory over Melbourne last year did suggest they could be a landmark team.
Form is fleeting almost everywhere.
Cronulla, a well-backed team and one I picked to make this year's Grand Final, have become the wooden spoon favourites after a listless start.
The salary cap era, which forces good players to leave good clubs, has changed the league to the point that it is a bit shapeless.
Money has also become a telling factor in Southern Hemisphere rugby. A prime example being the absence of Dan Carter from the Crusaders, a major reason why the repeat champions might not even make the semifinals. And Matt Giteau, a central figure in the Brumbies' planning, ended up in Perth on a mega-money deal, something that wouldn't have happened in the good old days.
There are many other factors which have evened up the union and league contests - the attrition rate because of the increased speed and physical nature of both games, a more severe judiciary, the excessive travel in union, league's salary cap, union's central contracts system, the lure of European money and the depth of analysis.
There is an enticing unpredictability in both competitions, yet a sad lack of outright glamour or a safe hook to hang your hat on.
Star-studded, dominant teams are great for sport. An example is basketball, which just isn't the same since the end of the Michael Jordan-Chicago Bulls era. On a similar note, Tiger Woods is golf.
It is the glamour factor which makes the English soccer Premier League so appealing. Critics may despair at the way the top sides can hoard the best players, a necessary evil for any powerful club playing in a multitude of competitions involving a packed schedule.
Yet the dominance of Manchester United, with a strong supporting cast in Liverpool, Chelsea and Co is what makes the premiership work to the level it does and attracts worldwide interest. If the premiership was full of Manchester Cities instead of Manchester Uniteds, it would be a very average show.
The Super 14 had more meaning and impact - and was more memorable - during the great eras of the Blues, Crusaders and Brumbies. They set the standards, and gave the rest something to beat. A drawback for rugby under the ELVs is that the game is so congested and random that it is hard for magical talent to take centre stage, except for the rare occasions that very good players face unusually poor defence.
League is also suffering in this and, as the Warriors coach Ivan Cleary said recently, fullbacks - the last of the magical mavericks - are even struggling to find open space.
League, I would also argue, was best served by the great days of teams such as the Canberra Raiders and Brisbane Broncos.
Both competitions have the look of a lolly scramble now. This isn't all bad, and it has to be accepted that long-lasting periods of dominance - the most famous one being the St George league side which won 11 successive titles between 1956 and 1966 - are a thing of the past.
But overly even competitions featuring barely distinguishable teams manufactured by the system are a let down.
The Chiefs are probably the Super 14's best glamour chance this season, especially as the Sharks have not shown any outlandish attacking ability.
The Chiefs have standout attacking players - it's hard to miss Sione Lauaki, Richard Kahui and Sitiveni Sivivatu (while it's a crying shame that Lelia Masaga is injured).
The moment of truth has arrived for Ian Foster's team, who have a run of games in South Africa.
You would still doubt their title credentials, but it would be nice to be proved wrong in this because the Chiefs bring a style to the game that is traditional and exciting. They have the potential for glamour.
This is why it would have been fantastic if Manly had hit the ground running in the NRL.
Melbourne's mini-dynasty might have been hit by the salary cap but it was heartening to contemplate the emergence of another side that was, on most days, too good for the pack.
Looking at the Manly lineup, it was hard to spot why they might be so good. Yet under Des Hasler, they found a great way to play. Manly face a long way back.
Moreover, another dominant side may never endure, leaving Craig Bellamy's Melbourne as the last staging post for the concept.
<i>Chris Rattue:</i> Our footy is suffering from a lack of glamour
The Blues, led by Zinzan Brooke, added glamour to the competition in the Super 12's early years. Photo / Getty Images
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