Hugh McGahon: Predicting top eight a puzzle of epic proportions

The success of the Panthers has been surprising. Photo / Getty Images

Halfway through the season, it's apparent how unpredictable selecting a top eight at the beginning of the year really is.

I predicted, in no particular order, the Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles, Storm, Newcastle, Penrith, Cowboys and Warriors would make the playoffs.

Heading into this weekend's round, only four occupied spots in the top eight (Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles and Panthers). Thankfully, three of the remaining four are well in contention and only the Knights out of the running in last place.

When I made my predictions in March, I said it would be easier to work out the top eight after round 10, but it has become harder this season to pick winners on a weekly basis, let alone the semifinalists.

I didn't foresee the Panthers at the top of the ladder. They're in a great position, especially in the middle of State of Origin, because they don't have a single player involved and it's arguable any would be considered. Despite this, they have still flown below the radar.

Most pundits think it's only a matter of time until the Panthers falter but, as long as their form continues, players stay fit and selectors disregard them, the Panthers will continue upsetting teams and the rankings.

The Knights struggled without the injured Jarrod Mullen early in the season, but it has been their off-field dramas that have contributed to their downfall.

When the club's viability surfaces, it's a distraction that involves families, not just the player.

Even the unflappable Wayne Bennett is distracted.

The Bulldogs are performing above expectations and the loss of Ben Barba has not had the effect I thought it would. The halves have dictated and both Brett Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds deserved New South Wales selection.

The old men of Manly are proving the adage that experience will win over youth. They perform when their stars are out, unlike the Storm. Melbourne might be struggling but I wouldn't write them off.

The Warriors were a major disappointment through the opening rounds but have recently shown the sort of grit and determination I haven't seen since Kevin Campion was leading the forward pack. The attitude they now display is pleasing and I don't want to announce a new dawn but, if the body language is anything to go by, the Warriors have changed their mentality.

Time will tell if it's just a mood they're in or if it's a DNA change. Hopefully it's the latter because no one wants to see another false dawn.