KEY POINTS:
No one gives New Zealand a chance in their opening World Cup game against Australia bar the Kiwis themselves.
If you like a bet, the potential earn on the Kiwis is better if the money is wagered in Australia, where they are completely written off at A$5 to
A$1.15 for the Kangaroos, A$7 to win their pool, while the Kangaroos are A$1.20.
There is slightly more faith on this side of the Tasman with the Kiwis at $4.20 to $1.20 for tomorrow's game and $5 to $1.30 to win the top pool.
The reality is the Kiwis' chances are better than that but the repeat hidings they have copped since competing well in the Tri Nations in 2005 and 2006 have eroded their credibility, 58-0 to the Kangaroos in Wellington last year and 28-12 in Sydney in May.
There are just two Kiwis that the Australian selectors would pluck for their team if they could, centre Steve Matai and wing Manu Vatuvei. The Kiwis have planned their attack around Benji Marshall's brilliance but he would not make it into a team that boasts Johnathan Thurston at halfback and Darren Lockyer at five-eighths.
If the Kiwi pack can make room for Marshall to work his hop-skip-step routine, to crab looking for runners or to run himself, he will do damage.
But of the props, only Nathan Cayless will match it with Petero Civoniceva and Steve Price, starter Adam Blair and bench backup Sam Rapira are still learning.
The mid-field is an area of attack for the Kiwis, with neither of the Kangaroos centres, Israel Folau or Greg Inglis, making much of a mark in the NRL finals series. Matai brings his formidable defence against Folau on the left side of the field and his smash tackling could well put the teen giant off his game. On attack, Matai has speed and power and a good support-play game.
On the right side, the Kiwis enjoy the in-form Warriors combination of Jerome Ropati and Vatuvei. The pair are sure to be a target for kickers Thomas Leuluai and Marshall.
If they get a chance early, as Vatuvei did in the NRL finals game against Manly, it must be taken. Then, ball was dropped with the line begging and once that opportunity was foiled the Sea Eagles grew in confidence, whereas points to the Auckland club at six minutes might have shaken them.
The New Zealanders are sure to employ multiple dummy-half runners, given the success the Warriors had with that tactic. Fullback Lance Hohaia and wing Sam Perret as well as Dene Halatau off the bench are the options to hooker Nathan Fien.
Jeremy Smith at lock showed a new dimension in his game as he led the Kiwis to a 56-8 victory over Tonga and will look to expand on that against the tougher opposition. In defence, his job has to be to grab Thurston and Lockyer if they try and run around the ruck or scrum.
Thurston, in particular, will try, especially against tiring forwards.
It is the game-steering and kicking ability from the halves where the Kangaroos have the most distinct advantage. Both can produce the brilliant moves that win games.
The Kiwis always perform better after time together, rather than in the mid-year tests where preparation comes down to four days. After beating the All Golds in New Plymouth and the run against Tonga, their combinations and timing should be just that bit better than the Kangaroos', who have not played a warm-up.
For a change the bulk of the Kiwis are selected from teams that performed well in the NRL finals series and for once they have some edge in test experience. Only Storm second-rower Sika Manu is new while the Aussies have four players on debut in Glenn Stewart and Anthony Laffranchi in the second row and Joel Monaghan at centre, with Josh Perry off the bench. Lock Paul Gallen has had just the one test, in May.
Hooker Cameron Smith has not played since he was suspended for a grapple tackle during the Storm-Broncos finals clash in September.
As usual, there can be no excuses for New Zealand. Ruben Wiki and Stacey Jones, the heroes of the 2005 Tri Nations triumph in England and the run through the 2006 competition where the final was lost to a piece of Lockyer brilliance in overtime, have been aiding the preparation.
They never made excuses and will have been telling the 2008 Kiwis there is nothing stopping them.
The Maori-Australian Indigenous game that is the curtainraiser tomorrow promises to be more entertaining and is likely to be played at a higher standard than many of the contests in pools two and three of the World Cup tournament. Both sides are stacked with talent from the NRL.
