League: The fire of London

By PETER JESSUP

The Robbie Paul factor could be the dominant influence in round two of the Tri-Nations series in London this weekend.

Paul is a little bit south of his home ground but nowhere near as far away as the Aussies are from theirs. He is a genuine world-class game-breaker. And he has motivation from loss, both in the Anzac tests - where he played just a few minutes at Newcastle before being knocked cold - and for the Super League grand final defeat to Leeds.

Paul will make his presence felt in the heavy traffic off the ruck and around the scrums with penetrative darts, well-timed passes for his back-up and a threatening kicking game. He is strong enough to beat big forwards and to off-load in their tackle, and he will be one of the most clever players on the park.

When Paul comes into the Kiwis camp he brings a natural high, a spark for the game and a love of beating Australia, a feat he's achieved only twice - in 1997 at North Harbour, and 1999 at Ericsson Stadium.

Paul's impact may be at the back end of each half as he slots in after the forwards have been bashing each other for some time, just as Motu Tony came from the bench with just 28 minutes left at Albany.

Or he might start early at halfback to add some experience, then shift to five-eighth as the fatigue factor brings holes in the defensive lines.

The Kiwis will benefit from the input of fresh legs in Paul, Logan Swann and Lesley Vainikolo. It's a shame they couldn't have kept Joe Galuvao, Tony Puletua and Matt Utai for competitive value in the squad alone. But the new trio are able replacements with good test experience.

The Cayless brothers, Nathan and Jason, play their second test together in the front row. They made huge in-roads to help guide the Kiwis to their win at Albany last year, and can again be expected to deliver a one-two punch in early carries in each set as the Kiwis work for field position. Ruben Wiki will work like a third prop. And in Paul Rauhihi - back from a calf injury - the Kiwis have the best prop of the NRL competition coming from the bench.

That quartet offer guaranteed metres and quick play-the-balls. With the referees told not to use the "dominant tackle" call from the NRL which allows the defending team more time to get off the tackled player, the speed of the delivery may play a big part in this game.

The Kiwis will look to send crashing forwards straight up the middle one after the other before going wider or developing second-phase play from off-loads. The Aussies, given the success they had running the ball through quick hands, are likely to go wide fast and early.

The Kiwis possess knockout defence in their backline with Vinnie Anderson the toughest-tackling back on the field in close to control the darts from Darren Lockyer. Both wings, Francis Meli and Vainikolo, also have damaging hitting power.

Smash-tackling was a valuable tactic for the Kiwis in the Tri-Nations opener and one they will surely employ again. By the second half the Aussies had been hit hard so many times they were firing panic passes behind one another, or missing the catch as they took a look at the defence. Spot-tackling can be a risky business - it leaves a hole when you miss - but with the ability to hurt from everyone in the pack it's a risk worth taking. Why would you tell Sonny Bill Williams to hold off?

Williams was the most dynamic attacking player on the park in the second half last weekend and can be expected to bring the same game. He admitted his first half at Albany wasn't what it could have been - he got hurt early, he tried to do too much, he tried to bring too much aggression. A word from coach Daniel Anderson to calm him had the desired effect and he produced the two big forward busts of the second half.

In Rauhihi, Williams and Nathan Cayless the Kiwis have three of the safest off-loaders in the game. They can be expected to push play with speedsters including Paul, Vagana and Brent Webb from fullback coming through the line at speed to collect them.

The Aussies have shifted Willie Mason to the bench to accommodate Craig Fitzgibbon and his goal-kicking game, preferring Nathan Hindmarsh's effort at Albany. That will take some of Mason's confidence, as will the hiding he got in tackles at Albany.

Anthony Minichiello was the most dangerous Australian on the park last weekend. It is vital that the Kiwis restrict his involvement this Sunday. That has to start with a good kick-chase so he does not get to wind up to full speed before he hits the line.

The Kangaroos tried repeatedly to break the Kiwis' line with short stabbing kicks last weekend and, though the tactic did not pay off for them, it's one they will use again because of their range of able field kickers.

The Australians are a solid team but there remains the feeling this is not a side in the class of previous Kangaroos outfits, that they are distinctly beatable. Much as captain Lockyer and halfback Craig Gower tried last weekend to take the controlling hand, they were unable to produce the breaks that mattered.

The mere fact the Kangaroos felt pressed to take field-goal attempts 15 minutes from the end reflects the pressure they felt. In previous years they would have backed themselves to win it with a try, even with two sets of six left.

The Kangaroos are nervous. They do not carry their usual aura of superiority. Their hopes of winning the Tri-Nations will slide if they lose this weekend.

The Aussies have not lost a series to New Zealand since 1953, to Great Britain since 1970.

It is an awesome track record. But at what point does the weight of history overbalance and become the fear of being the team to lose the record?

* New Zealand v Australia, Loftus Rd, London, 6am Sunday, live Sky Sport 1. Reports on nzherald.co.nz/league