"The international game is under threat," says New Zealand Rugby League high performance manager Tony Kemp. "For our best Kiwi kids the decisions will become harder and harder. It will become more difficult to retain Kiwi hearts. There is a danger that Origin will take the best players while we get the leftovers."
A player becomes eligible to play State of Origin based on the first professional club with which he is registered. Any New Zealand-qualified players who commit to Origin forfeit their right to play for the Kiwis.
Origin offers glitz and glamour on an unprecedented scale in the league world. It captivates Australia for almost two months of the year.
If the temptation was already huge, it's about to become irresistible.
The battle has intensified in 2012. On the back of the Tamou decision, Meninga openly wooed Cowboys star Jason Taumalolo, who came extremely close to opting for Queensland before eventually plumping for the Kiwis. Young gun Raiders forward Papalii also rebuffed Meninga's advances - for now - saying his future is with the Kiwis.
"I know now ... I'm Kiwi 100 per cent," Papalii told the Courier Mail in March. "I went on a tour with the Junior Kiwis [in 2011] and the bond among the boys was too strong."
Papalii has signed a letter of intent to play for the Kiwis but Kemp admits nothing is assured until he is ultimately picked.
The most high-profile current case is Sam Kasiano, rated as one of the most damaging props in the game. The 120kg Bulldog has signed a letter of intent to play for the Kiwis but has since seemingly been seduced by the Maroons, apparently expressing an interest in playing for the "Cockroaches".
"Sam is not 100 per cent committed either way," says Kemp. "He will decide either way [and] there is not a lot more we can do."
From a Queensland perspective they are doing no wrong. Despite their unparalleled dominance since 2006, they are still fighting a numbers battle every year. Only 21 per cent of players registered in the NRL come from the Sunshine State, giving NSW an extraordinary selection advantage that has only been negated by the once in a generation talents of Smith, Slater, Inglis and Thurston. As Kasiano, Papalii and Taumalolo all played some junior football in Queensland, the QRL believe they have due rights to the players.
"When it comes to these matters, it's pretty clearcut," said Meninga. "If Queensland have put the time and effort into developing a kid, then he should be playing for Queensland, and ultimately Australia. If New Zealand put in the time and effort, then the kid should play for New Zealand."
"What Ricky [Stuart] and Mal [Meninga] are doing is detrimental to the fundamental wellbeing of their own sport," says Kemp. "You have New South Wales and Queensland kids that aspire to wear the blue and the maroon and they want to put Kiwi kids in those jerseys. There is a kid from Palmerston North (Tamou) wearing blue."
The flood of Kiwis into the NRL surges every year. There are currently more than 500 players of New Zealand descent in the NRL (around 30 per cent) and unlike decades ago, the vast majority arrive in Australia well before they have played senior football, making them eligible for either nation.
Around 36 per cent of Toyota Cup players are of Maori or Pacific Island descent, with the figure at 29 per cent in the NRL. As well as the Kiwis, the increasing lure of the Origin dollar and prestige also spells danger for burgeoning league nations like Tonga and Samoa, with Feleti Mateo's recent declaration a case in point.
The crux of the issue is money. The television rights to Origin are being auctioned separately in the current negotiations and are expected to fetch up to A$10 million ($12.9 million) annually. Add in revenue from ticket sales, hosting rights, sponsorship and merchandising and the overall figure goes even higher.
Player advocates point out that the players currently receive a six per cent share of the pie. A new deal could see them receive closer to 20 per cent.
The counter argument says the money needs to flow back into the grassroots of the game, and also to the clubs who take the biggest hit from the series. The new level also seems out of proportion, as the Wallabies receive around A$10,000 ($12,900) a game and the All Blacks $7500.
"It will have a positive impact on players' pockets," says Warriors coach Brian McClennan, "but a negative impact on the game. We have to be careful. International league should always be the pinnacle. Who do they pick in the Australian team? They pick the best players from New South Wales and Queensland so surely it is the pinnacle."
"A lot of people are worried that it is going to be more of an incentive for Kiwis that have spent time in both places that they will want to play Origin instead of playing for their country," says Warriors prop Jacob Lillyman. "It is a bit of an issue so hopefully they can sort it out and it can be fair to both teams."
As well as the lure of the lucre, the new Junior Origin series, which will commence in 2013, could be another foot on the throat for international league. It will be a mechanism for NSW and Queensland to lock in the best junior players, whether they eventually pick them or not, and further weaken the Kiwi cause.
So what is the solution? One, which seems unpalatable to most, would be to allow Kiwi-eligible players to participate in State of Origin without having to play for Australia, thus turning the series into a set of true all-star games.
The NZRL are working on their own strategy, which includes a Kiwi Origin series. A Junior (under-20s) Origin series is due to kick off in 2013, but the senior one may be a few years away yet. It will need the agreement of NRL clubs (always a tricky proposition) and the NZRL are also aware they are competing with a legacy of 30 years and don't want to introduce something that won't stand the test of time.
For now, we watch and wait. There is the real proposition that future Benji Marshalls, Ruben Wikis and Keiran Forans could end up in Australianjumpers. League has always been marketed as the "greatest game of all"; the wrong decision in the coming months might lead to the "greatest shame of all".
