KEY POINTS:
The Kiwis enjoy one area of distinct advantage in this Centenary Test - in the back row. There they have the world's best by far, Sonny Bill Williams, along with the nearly as devastating Frank Pritchard and big-hitting defender Jeremy Smith.
It's surely an area they will try
and exploit heavily, with Sonny Bill and Pritchard trying to crash holes and off-load to set up play for Brent Webb coming at speed, and others.
It's the best hope they have of scoring points. It's the one area where, if you do the old mano-a-mano, you'd select our guys ahead of theirs.
The props pretty much cancel each other out, though Asotasi may be the world's best. The go-forward should be about equal. Likewise the midfield, though Gasnier might be the world's best. At fullback, Billy Slater and Brent Webb - even. The benches? Lance Hohaia is playing as well as Kurt Gidley, Jeremy Smith as well as Anthony Tupou. Let's hope Kidwell smashes Willie Mason hard and early.
At the crucial positions of halfback and hooker it's no contest. Johnathan Thurston has played three-times the number of top-grade games that Ben Roberts has and employs a quiver of kicking arrows armed with pin-point accuracy; Cameron Smith has played six times the number of top-grade games that Isaac Luke has and has a weight and height advantage as well as test and grand final experience.
We are no contest in the kicking game. And given the size of those Aussie wings Israel Folau and Greg Inglis it is no secret where many of the Kangaroos kicks to the in-goal will be targeted. Both rookie Jason Nightingale and last year's England tourist Sam Perrett can expect to be bombed.
So New Zealand's chances come down to not spilling too much pill, mounting pressure by completing their sets and letting Sonny Bill roam the field to pick and choose his times and targets in attack. They need smart cover of the Australian kicking game and attention to detail around the ruck where Thurston will probe looking for runners.
Quick movement off the defensive line will negate Thurston's impact to some extent. Greg Bird is not nearly as good a kicker to other players nor to space.
The Kiwis 17 are all solid NRL players with good experience of their opponents. There can be no excuse for a defeat of the 58-0 sort in Wellington last year. But they lack the class, across the board and especially in nine and seven, that the Australians have always enjoyed.
