KEY POINTS:
You never quite know with rugby league but it seems likely the next coach of the Kiwis will be James Leuluai.
Barely mentioned as a contender at the beginning of the hunt for the successor to Brian McClennan, Leuluai has been the subject of a decent bit of
arm-twisting by New Zealand Rugby League.
The favourite to take over from Daniel Anderson - for whom he was Kiwis' assistant coach between 2003-2005 - Leuluai withdrew at the last minute when McClennan got the job last time.
But the political mood has shifted with McClennan's departure and Leuluai seems most likely to succeed, although the swings and shifts in rugby leaguedom are such that any hint of certainty in this pronouncement could be sadly misplaced.
It is something of an open secret that Leuluai was asked to apply for the position although, in these highly politicised days and with the NZRL still licking its wounds after McClennan's finger-pointing departure, maybe not too much should be read into that.
But the real reason the NZRL like the idea of Leuluai is that he has background - even though he hasn't coached lately - and that he was a long way down the career "pathways" that sports bodies favour so much these days.
That speaks to the chain of command and accountability issues at the heart of the McClennan departure.
That saga hinged around, as McClennan laid it out, his contract allowing him direct access to NZRL chairman Andrew Chalmers before he perceived that people like Graham Lowe and Tony Kemp were being put in his way.
What has never been said from within the NZRL hallways - they want the whole issue to fade away - is that McClennan had taken his stewardship of the Kiwis to a level that alarmed the NZRL.
McClennan, they felt, was in the process of surrounding himself with so many confidantes and had so little obligation to report to the usual chain of command they were in danger of ceding power and control over the Kiwis to the coach. The Kiwis were in danger of becoming a 'Bluey' monopoly. Like most sports administrators, they baulked at the idea of the tail wagging the dog.
One of the downsides of such a monopoly was seen when McClennan left - there was no anointed deputy ready to take over.
Which is where, politically anyway, Leuluai's case is strong. He knows the structure - it worked that way in Anderson's day; he knows the importance of able deputies; he is a confirmed worker within the pathways so there will be comparatively little fear of a McClennan-style 'takeover', as the NZRL brass would see it.
Not coaching recently will also not disadvantage Leuluai. Neither has another front runner, former Kiwi fullback Gary Kemble, and none of the 15 candidates for the job have a proven record at NRL or international level, including Junior Kiwis coach Paul Bergman, another frontrunner.
Kemble also has a good coaching background, assisting Frank Endacott at the 2000 World Cup and Anderson at the Warriors for a time.
But Leuluai is the one who has really been on the coaching fast track, at least until McClennan arrived - when he stepped right off it.
The announcement is expected this week.