League: Kiwis have edge over weakened GB

Clinton Toopi is a certainty to play after his leg injury recovered quickly. Getty Images / Adam Pretty

The Kiwis are well placed to beat Great Britain tomorrow morning and go on to win the Tri-Nations series.

Despite the usual injury withdrawals from players leant on by the clubs that pay their wages, the Kiwis have a squad to win.

Great Britain do not look to be in such good shape and should the Kiwis win this weekend they will set themselves up for a repeat over a Lions side who play the Kangaroos next weekend before again facing New Zealand. If the Lions suffer casualties to their leaders their chances are gone.

While the Kiwis are missing world-beaters in Sonny Bill Williams, Benji Marshall and Lesley Vainikolo, Great Britain will feel more heavily the losses of halves Danny McGuire and Sean Long plus lock Paul Sculthorpe and Kris Radlinski.

Those four are seasoned internationals and last year it was the halves combination with Sculthorpe that made the difference as the Kiwis were twice run down.

Coming into their team is big back Keith Senior, who will play his first game in eight weeks after breaking an ankle in August.

Lions coach Brian Noble is not confirming Senior's start but it is a given, as is that of Keiron Cunningham at hooker, Adrian Morley in the front row and Martin Gleeson in the centres.

Noble will want to use experienced test men Stuart Fielden and wings Chev Walker and Brian Carney in the backs and clearly captain Jamie Peacock will start.

But Noble's pre-game subterfuge in holding off the naming of his side until hours before kick-off does nothing to promote the game.

The Rugby League International Federation needs to rectify the situation and prevent repeats by setting rules in concrete.

While it's at it, it might also look at player eligibility and availability, protocols for handling injury withdrawals, regulation field sizes for specific pitches that are used and the format of the tournament - how come New Zealand gets three games in a row then a big break?

Noble's move does, however, show he's looking for any small advantage he can get. He's watched the Kiwis play two games but doesn't want them scouting what his side might do. It should make little difference to the New Zealanders, who have so far adjusted cleverly between matches. Further tinkering with the game plan can be expected from coach Brian McClennan who, since his appointment mid-year, has been analysing the opposition.

The Kiwis will use Stacey Jones at halfback. He has trained freely for the past two days despite an as-yet- unidentified injury hangover after the last match against Australia.

Lance Hohaia is no chance for this game, despite making a good recovery from his ankle tear, but may be available for the next.

Clinton Toopi is sure to play after his leg injury healed quickly.

Great Britain have Paul Deacon, Richard Horne, Rob Barrow and Iestyn Harris to choose from as game-runners in the halves. Of those, Barrow is on debut and Harris has in the past been targeted and taken out.

But Noble does not have much choice and it seems there will be at least two and possibly three new caps, while the Kiwis will have none.

The Great Britain squad include five debutants - Barrow, St Helens prop Nick Fozzard and lock John Wilkie and the Hull pair of Gareth Raynor and Jamie Thackray - while only Bronson Harrison of the Kiwis has yet to taste test play.

Great Britain are sure to play it tough in the middle with hardman Morley leading the way.

Should the game be tight and in the balance they can be expected to bring in dirty tactics.

But if New Zealand start with a blitz - as they did in the first half of the last game against Australia, picking opponents up and driving them back to the in-goal, winning more possession and getting points up - Great Britain are likely to struggle.

It is hard to see this new-look Kiwis team conceding great runs of points against the Lions as they did last year and as they have done against the Kangaroos in this series - the Lions simply do not have the degree of strikepower held by Australia.

But that remains their one major problem, learning not to switch off.

If they play for the full 80 minutes, the Lions will simply not be able to cope with the Kiwis' power and pace.

Tri-Nations test lineups

Kiwis v Great Britain, Loftus Rd, London, 6.10am tomorrow. Referee: Glen Black (NZ).

Likely Kiwis side: Brent Webb, Jake Webster, Paul Whatuira, Clinton Toopi, Shontayne Hape, Nigel Vagana, Stacey Jones, Ruben Wiki, Motu Tony, Paul Rauhihi, Tony Puletua, Ali Lauitiiti, Louis Anderson; David Solomona, Roy Asotasi, Frank Pritchard, David Faiumu.

Great Britain squad: Rob Burrow (Leeds), Brian Carney (Wigan), Keiron Cunningham (St Helens), Paul Deacon (Bradford), Gareth Ellis (Leeds), Stuart Fielden (Bradford), Nick Fozzard (St Helens), Lee Gilmour (St Helens), Martin Gleeson (Warrington), Iestyn Harris (Bradford), Mickey Higham (St Helens), Richard Horne (Hull), Paul Johnson (Bradford), Adrian Morley (Sydney Roosters/Bradford), Jamie Peacock (Bradford, capt), Leon Pryce (Bradford), Gareth Raynor (Hull), Keith Senior (Leeds), Kevin Sinfield (Leeds), Jamie Thackray (Hull), Chev Walker (Leeds), Paul Wellens (St Helens), Stephen Wild (Wigan), Jon Wilkin (St Helens).