Tonight's test in Sydney is likely to be decided by the effectiveness of the Kiwis' kicking game and their level of success in chasing and holding the Aussies in their own territory.
In Andrew Johns the Kangaroos have a significant advantage in the field kicking game, via his array of
spiralling bombs, banana kicks, high shots to the wings and grubbers behind an advancing line.
He is sure to target new Kiwis wing Manu Vatuvei, whose 108kg frame is all power going forward but that can be a drawback when he has to stop and turn.
The Kiwis have also signalled they fancy their chances against two centres playing on the flank in Timana Tahu and Matt King. The Warriors targeted Tahu when playing the Eels at Ericsson Stadium a few weeks back, and he took the ball they gave him and killed them.
The atmosphere in the Kiwis camp has been light yet committed, focused on beating history. It was 1959 when the New Zealand team last won in Sydney.
As usual, it is Kiwi power versus Australian guile and speed. The Kangaroos are sure to try to press for holes around the ruck and in the first plays in their sets, taking the bigger Kiwis forwards laterally across the field then probing for gaps.
The Kiwis must rely on each other in defence, communicate so those gaps do not eventuate and hold on their man rather than coming in-field against their draw-and-pass.
On attack, the crucial thing is to get out of their own half and play the game at the right end of the field.
Coach Brian McClennan has watched tapes of games going back to the Frank Endacott coaching era and one situation stood out for him: the Aussies have always pressured New Zealand early in their sets.
"They get up fast and hold us in tackles one and two and force us to start shovelling the ball, doing things we don't want to do."
Mistakes made in that situation often resulted in Aussie tries, McClennan said. They had to stay composed and hold those "panic" balls.
By the same token, their opportunities will doubtless come through the strength of the forwards and their ability to take the tackle and off-load at critical stages. English-based David Solomona has been mentioned as having a particular ability in this regard, and it's sure they'll inject him for the second 20 minutes in each half, seeking to take advantage of tiring props.
For once, the Kangaroos pack does not have an advantage in match fitness. The bulk of their team have not come from the two grand finalists, as is the norm.
Like Kiwis skipper Ruben Wiki, Kangaroos prop Steve Price has not played for five weeks nor have Danny Buderus and Craig Fitzgibbon. Ben Kennedy and Petero Civoniceva have not played for four weeks, and only Luke O'Donnell and Jason Ryles played into the latter stages of the NRL.
Kangaroos coach Wayne Bennett has said that may be an advantage because the players from the grand finals in 2003 and 2004 were tired when they joined the national camp.
It is significant that the Australians, who essentially run the game despite a veneer of consultation with their "poor cousins" here and in England, have shifted the opening game to Sydney.
For the past two years the Tri-Nations opened in Auckland, the Kiwis winning 30-16 at North Harbour Stadium in 2003 and earning a 16-all draw in 2004.
The Kangaroos clearly don't want to be caught on the hop again.
Yet it seems they might be. They do not enjoy the cohesion evident in the New Zealand team, which knows it is on a hiding to nothing. By comparison, the Aussies are expected to win and win well, and that expectation may become a telling burden.
If New Zealand can stay in the game to the latter stages, there is every possibility the Aussies will begin to panic and possibly perform a Kiwis-style, mistake-driven collapse.
One thing is sure: The Kangaroos will not wipe the floor with this Kiwis side as has happened repeatedly in Sydney. There is too much experience, too much willpower in the team to allow that to happen.
There is plenty for the Kiwis to play for because the curtain-raiser to the test gives the next-best a chance to forge ahead of them in Tri-Nations selection. The NZ A side to play Australia A includes five former Kiwis, 13 NRL regulars plus Motu Tony from Super League at halfback. The Aussies have included Willie Mason, Trent Barrett, Mark O'Meley, Ben Creagh, Matt Cooper and Scott Prince from their Tri-Nations squad.
* Stadium Australia, 10.30 tonight
Australia
Anthony Minichiello
Matt King
Brent Tate
Mark Gasnier
Timana Tahu
Darren Lockyer (c)
Andrew Johns
Steve Price
Danny Buderus
Petero Civoniceva
Luke O'Donnell
Craig Fitzgibbon
Ben Kennedy
New Zealand
Brent Webb
Jake Webster
Paul Whatuira
Clinton Toopi
Manu Vatuvei
Nigel Vagana
Stacey Jones
Paul Rauhihi
Lance Hohaia
Ruben Wiki
David Kidwell
Frank Pritchard
Louis Anderson
Interchange:
Australia: Jason Ryles, Craig Gower, Andrew Ryan, Trent Waterhouse.
New Zealand: David Faiumu, Roy Asotasi, Nathan Cayless, David Solomona.
Tonight's test in Sydney is likely to be decided by the effectiveness of the Kiwis' kicking game and their level of success in chasing and holding the Aussies in their own territory.
In Andrew Johns the Kangaroos have a significant advantage in the field kicking game, via his array of
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