Shaun Johnson. Photo / Getty Images
This might seem like another Warriors rollercoaster season — with a sharp drop at the end — but maybe this one's different. Maybe there are valid reasons for their decline, and it's much more than the absence of halfback Shaun Johnson.
This team lack 'middle men', players who fall between veteran and rookie status. The 17 who faced Penrith last night were similar in age to the 2011 grand final team but the gulf in experience between the two is telling.
In 2011, 14 of the 17-man squad had played 50 or more NRL games, with only Johnson, Elijah Taylor and Bill Tupou falling short of that mark. Aside from veterans such as Micheal Luck, Simon Mannering, Lance Hohaia and Manu Vatuvei, there was a group of dependable players in the mid-range of NRL experience: Kevin Locke (52 games), Lewis Brown (59), Krisnan Inu (95) James Maloney (54), Aaron Heremaia (59), Russell Packer (76) and Ben Matulino (85).
In contrast, last night's squad had only eight players who had exceeded the half-century mark. There were another eight with less than 25 NRL appearances. It's a situation that can work for one or two games, like the occasional 'Baby Broncos' upsets over the years, but can't be sustained for a long period.
"That first milestone — that 50 games — certainly signifies that you know what it takes to be there and you have the consistency to be there regularly," said Warriors second rower Ryan Hoffman. "Every team has experienced guys and [rookies] but where teams do really well is when the majority are in that middle area — between 50 and 150 games."
Super-coach Wayne Bennett consistently packed his teams with tough, hardened individuals at the Broncos, Dragons and Knights.
"I always say you need to have played three years and about 40-50 games before you know what the hell is going on out there," said Bennett.
"Until then, you can get the odd exception but it is a huge adjustment. If you have got too many in the team who haven't got [those numbers] up, that makes you even more vulnerable."
Bennett said there are "a whole lot of issues" with young players.
"[Generally] the less, the better; the more, the more fraught you are with the danger of not getting it right," he said. "You have to manage how you get them in, what position that come in, how long they might play for, how long they don't play. I like the older players because they know how to get the job done."
Warriors coach Andrew McFadden has had limited flexibility this season. He's made mistakes at the selection table — but injuries to an already green team put greater demands on young players.
"You can't teach experience," said Warriors prop Sam Rapira. "When I was coming through, I had a lot of senior guys around me and it made things easier."
Back rower Raymond Faitala-Marriner is one of the new breed.
"Maintaining your consistency is the hardest part," said the 22-year-old. "You can't really afford mistakes. And the main thing is the different thresholds under pressure and in those key moments. Obviously senior players who are experienced are able to handle that pressure and there are some boys who need to keep working on that."
Experience drives success. There are some freaks — Daly Cherry-Evans has always looked comfortable and Cameron Smith was playing Origin before his 21st birthday — but generally miles on the clock matter.
Nathan Friend made his NRL debut in 2002, at the age of 21.
"When I first started, I thought, 'I'm ready for first grade, give me a go'. But it's not until about 50 games that you start to understand the game and every game starts to slow down for you. Now you enter a game and you can see things in advance."