League: Final-quarter momentum likely to decide Anzac test

The Anzac test at Suncorp Stadium tonight will be all about momentum.

Whoever has it going into the last quarter will win.

So much of the game these days is about possession: give the ball away to the opposition and you tackle too much, drop intensity on attack, and lose.

The Kiwis must limit their dropped ball and penalty count, especially at their own end of the field if they are to keep their chances alive until the last 20 minutes.

They are already on a hiding-to-nothing in the field-kicking contest against the game's best exponent, the Kangaroos' Brett Kimmorley.

And if the score is close the Kiwis could lose out to the goal-kicking accuracy of Craig Fitzgibbon, who has a host of NRL finals appearances as well as eight tests behind him.

The Aussies have a speed advantage in the backs through fullback Anthony Minichiello and wings Luke Rooney and Matt Sing. And it's sure they will have noted that Jerome Ropati has not been 100 per cent under the high ball for the Warriors and will kick repeatedly to the rookie Kiwis fullback.

They will also bomb left-wing Matt Utai, whose lack of height disadvantages him in the leap for the ball.

To give themselves a chance, the Kiwis have to play to their strengths, which are in the middle of the park. They must produce quick play-the-balls off the big-impact men Ruben Wiki, Paul Rauhihi, Roy Asotasi and Jason Cayless.

They have to work second-phase play from off-loads and need back-up ball-carriers and dummy-runners in numbers to rattle the Kangaroos' defence.

The Kiwis have four of the best props in the NRL, whereas Warriors captain Steve Price is the only Aussie in the position playing with consistency.

They also have form centres in Nigel Vagana and Paul Whatuira. Australia have plumped for 2004 Tri-Nations incumbents Shaun Berrigan and Willie Tonga, who have been in ordinary form.

The Kangaroos have seniority and perhaps superiority in the halves through test veterans Kimmorley and captain Darren Lockyer.

If the Kiwis give those two room to move and time to run the game, then forget it.

They have to be contained by fast, pressure defence so the ground the Kangaroos gain through field kicks is limited.

Kiwis coach Daniel Anderson is prepared to accept some dropped ball from his charges.

"We will not beat Australia by tucking the ball under our arms," he said.

So he intends to give some licence to the players to throw the ball around. But he wants it done at the right time.

He is more comfortable with the side than he has been going into previous tests.

"We're a better team than we were last year. The Tri-Nations tour was worth a fair bit," he said.

He's satisfied they have a pack that can lay a foundation for Thomas Leuluai and Benji Marshall. "You have to gauge the quality of the forwards by those left out - Alex Chan and Nathan Cayless."

Regardless of the result tonight, the future looks bright for the Kiwis, Anderson believes.

"I'd like to think there won't be too many debutantes in the next three years because we have been building depth and competition for places."

More than 35,000 tickets have been sold for tonight's game at Suncorp Stadium, a record not bettered for tests in Australia since 1992 when 40,141 watched the Kangaroos beat Great Britain in Sydney.

* Jason Ryles was last night ruled out of the Australian side with a hamstring injury and replaced on the bench by Trent Waterhouse. Luke Lewis comes in as 18th man.